Well-Off-Obstacle
0x2f0c7c1a19b0e6f50a379c191b61af9c9dfcf746
Wallet digest
Activity score
54/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
18
Open notional
$394.70
Total PnL
$-103.09
Realised
$-105.80
Win rate
0%
7 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 18- NO
Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region?
650 shares @ 39.5¢·now 31.0¢·exp Sep 20, 2026$201.56
$-55.50
- YES
Will claude-opus-5-high be the best AI model on August 31, 2026?
219 shares @ 11.4¢·now 69.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$152.41
$127.41
- NO
Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
969 shares @ 2.0¢·now 1.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$14.05
$-4.95
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on August 19?
9 shares @ 54.3¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 19, 2026$9.08
$4.15
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 20 to August 22, 2026?
21 shares @ 48.0¢·now 40.5¢·exp Aug 22, 2026$8.44
$-1.56
- YES
Will Alibaba be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of August 2026?
100 shares @ 15.0¢·now 5.3¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$5.36
$-9.64
- YES
Will New People (NL) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
278 shares @ 2.5¢·now 0.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$1.39
$-5.61
- YES
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
333 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.3¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$1.00
$0.00
- YES
Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
333 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.1¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$0.50
$-0.50
- YES
Will United Russia (ER) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
71 shares @ 2.8¢·now 0.7¢·exp Sep 20, 2026$0.46
$-1.54
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on August 19?$5.04Aug 18, 13:45 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - August 18, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET$4.46Aug 18, 13:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 18, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET$4.14Aug 18, 13:40 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 18, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET$0.00Aug 18, 13:39 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 18, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET$4.21Aug 18, 13:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 18, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET$4.01Aug 18, 13:31 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 18, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET$0.00Aug 18, 13:31 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 18, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET$4.53Aug 18, 13:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 18, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET$2.48Aug 18, 13:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 20 to August 22, 2026?$10.26Aug 18, 13:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Alibaba be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of August 2026?$15.51Aug 18, 13:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill claude-opus-5-high be the best AI model on August 31, 2026?$25.89Aug 18, 13:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYRussia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region?$30.69Aug 17, 09:11 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET$0.00Aug 16, 15:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$19.00Aug 16, 15:24 UTC
- TRADESELLWill United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$49.15Aug 16, 15:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET$4.13Aug 16, 15:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Yabloko win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$4.35Aug 16, 15:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYRussia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region?$97.21Aug 16, 15:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYRussia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region?$6.16Aug 10, 09:26 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
24/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 7 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
27 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 63/100.
7 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 27
- Avg trade size
- $16.62
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 3, 14:31 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 18, 13:45 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 7 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.