Wiggly-Ephemeris
0x2f3986368fa98b93cfa31bc4eb889109beb05bc5
Wallet digest
Activity score
57/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
131
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-1.4K
Realised
$106.43
Win rate
67%
6 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 131- YES
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2025?
3500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-7.00
- YES
Will Trump visit China by April 30?
3158 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- NO
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $75 by end of January?
2024 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-14.53
- YES
Will "Anaconda" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 27m and 31m?
1256 shares @ 1.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 29, 2025$0.00
$-15.50
- YES
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30?
1000 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Discord IPO in 2025?
1000 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Exact Score: France 3 - 3 Spain?
714 shares @ 1.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 14, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
700 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-1.40
- YES
Will "Hoppers" score at least 98 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?
566 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 9, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- NO
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $75 by end of March?
500 shares @ 1.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-8.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$10.00Jul 19, 17:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: France 2 - 3 Spain?$8.98Jul 14, 08:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: France 3 - 2 Spain?$10.49Jul 14, 08:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: France 3 - 3 Spain?$10.49Jul 14, 08:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Norway win on 2026-06-26?$39.67Jun 26, 07:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$1.44Jun 26, 07:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$1.03Jun 26, 07:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill US withdraw from NATO by April 30?$2.00Apr 28, 06:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump visit China by April 30?$10.00Apr 28, 06:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYRolex Monte Carlo Masters: Carlos Alcaraz vs Valentin Vacherot$10.00Apr 11, 05:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYRolex Monte Carlo Masters: Alexander Zverev vs Jannik Sinner$10.00Apr 11, 05:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYRolex Monte Carlo Masters: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Jannik Sinner$5.00Apr 10, 07:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYRolex Monte Carlo Masters: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alexander Bublik$10.00Apr 10, 07:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYBackpack FDV above $3B one day after launch?$5.00Mar 11, 10:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYBackpack FDV above $2B one day after launch?$5.00Mar 11, 10:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYBackpack FDV above $1B one day after launch?$10.00Mar 11, 10:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Clavicular be Iran's next Supreme Leader by March 31st?$2.00Mar 11, 00:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Iranian regime fall by March 31?$10.00Mar 10, 13:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by March 13?$5.00Mar 10, 07:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by March 13?$2.00Mar 10, 06:17 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
23/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
67% win rate over 6 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 47/100.
6 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $5.89
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 5, 19:28 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 19, 17:19 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 6 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.