Hard-To-Find-Bear
0x2f400c246ae91a94d38a99abf0dc74977093887c
Wallet digest
Activity score
84/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
65
Open notional
$21.96
Total PnL
$-74.90
Realised
$5.14
Win rate
100%
10 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 65- YES
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 14?
30 shares @ 13.7¢·now 21.6¢·exp Jul 14, 2026$6.48
$2.37
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on July 14?
30 shares @ 17.3¢·now 18.5¢·exp Jul 14, 2026$5.54
$0.35
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on July 14?
10 shares @ 16.0¢·now 30.0¢·exp Jul 14, 2026$3.00
$1.40
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on July 14?
50 shares @ 4.0¢·now 3.5¢·exp Jul 14, 2026$1.75
$-0.25
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on July 14?
74 shares @ 2.4¢·now 2.3¢·exp Jul 14, 2026$1.70
$-0.07
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on July 15?
12 shares @ 9.0¢·now 13.5¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$1.62
$0.54
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on July 15?
30 shares @ 4.0¢·now 4.1¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$1.23
$0.03
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on July 14?
50 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.7¢·exp Jul 14, 2026$0.33
$0.03
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 39°C or higher on July 14?
150 shares @ 1.4¢·now 0.2¢·exp Jul 14, 2026$0.30
$-1.80
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on July 14?
20 shares @ 5.0¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 14, 2026$0.01
$-0.99
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 27°C on July 14?$1.25Jul 14, 04:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 28°C on July 14?$1.07Jul 14, 04:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 28°C on July 14?$0.16Jul 14, 04:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 28°C on July 14?$0.17Jul 14, 03:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 39°C or higher on July 14?$0.30Jul 14, 03:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 39°C or higher on July 14?$0.95Jul 14, 00:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 27°C on July 14?$2.40Jul 14, 00:25 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in London be 26°C on July 13?$10.00Jul 13, 23:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 39°C or higher on July 14?$0.16Jul 13, 23:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 39°C or higher on July 14?$0.18Jul 13, 23:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 39°C or higher on July 14?$0.18Jul 13, 23:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 39°C or higher on July 14?$0.22Jul 13, 23:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 14?$2.40Jul 13, 23:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on July 15?$1.20Jul 13, 23:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 14?$1.71Jul 13, 21:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 28°C on July 14?$0.55Jul 13, 21:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 28°C on July 14?$1.92Jul 13, 21:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 28°C on July 14?$0.38Jul 13, 21:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 28°C on July 14?$0.24Jul 13, 21:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 28°C on July 14?$0.23Jul 13, 21:04 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
27/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
100% win rate over 10 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 40/100.
10 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $0.85
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 12, 23:37 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 14, 04:23 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 10 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.