Ashamed-Turtle
0x2f5f8f1ef98f8c7fcfb83c386fda87c4303c7e41
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
158
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-935.30
Realised
$6.76
Win rate
50%
14 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 158- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on February 27?
6850 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 27, 2026$0.00
$-25.98
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C or higher on February 27?
2500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 27, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET
2500 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 18, 2026$0.00
$-25.24
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 74-75°F on February 28?
1883 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-12.67
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on February 28?
1000 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 66-67°F on March 1?
857 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 1, 2026$0.00
$-6.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C on March 1?
748 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 1, 2026$0.00
$-3.74
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 64-65°F on March 1?
643 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 1, 2026$0.00
$-4.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on February 28?
625 shares @ 2.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-13.99
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 58-59°F on February 28?
553 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-4.48
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET$1.00Mar 24, 09:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET$0.85Mar 24, 09:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET$1.08Mar 24, 09:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET$1.14Mar 24, 09:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET$1.00Mar 24, 08:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET$1.00Mar 24, 08:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET$0.13Mar 24, 08:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET$0.50Mar 24, 08:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET$0.37Mar 24, 08:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET$1.00Mar 24, 08:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET$1.14Mar 24, 08:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET$1.00Mar 24, 08:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET$1.00Mar 24, 08:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET$1.08Mar 24, 08:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET$1.00Mar 24, 08:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET$0.90Mar 24, 08:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET$1.14Mar 24, 08:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET$1.00Mar 24, 07:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET$0.85Mar 24, 07:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET$1.14Mar 24, 07:36 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
37/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
50% win rate over 14 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 32/100.
14 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $0.96
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 24, 04:06 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 24, 09:40 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 14 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.