Excitable-Filter
0x2f7ba8d9f24129b4239969ad42ab71381abaefdd
Wallet digest
Activity score
79/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
30
Open notional
$43.82
Total PnL
$-1.18
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 30- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on July 22?
17 shares @ 12.0¢·now 76.5¢·exp Jul 22, 2026$12.75
$10.75
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 39°C on July 22?
7 shares @ 68.0¢·now 91.0¢·exp Jul 22, 2026$6.69
$1.69
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on July 22?
3 shares @ 88.0¢·now 99.5¢·exp Jul 22, 2026$3.39
$0.39
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on July 22?
8 shares @ 25.1¢·now 32.5¢·exp Jul 22, 2026$2.59
$0.59
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on July 22?
2 shares @ 85.0¢·now 86.5¢·exp Jul 22, 2026$2.04
$0.04
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on July 22?
3 shares @ 37.0¢·now 72.5¢·exp Jul 22, 2026$1.96
$0.96
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on July 22?
3 shares @ 38.0¢·now 70.5¢·exp Jul 22, 2026$1.86
$0.86
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on July 22?
8 shares @ 12.0¢·now 19.0¢·exp Jul 22, 2026$1.58
$0.58
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on July 22?
3 shares @ 37.0¢·now 56.5¢·exp Jul 22, 2026$1.53
$0.53
- NO
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on July 22?
3 shares @ 71.0¢·now 54.0¢·exp Jul 22, 2026$1.52
$-0.48
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chongqing be 37°C on July 22?$1.05Jul 22, 05:25 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Chongqing be 41°C on July 22?$0.73Jul 22, 05:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chongqing be 40°C on July 22?$1.02Jul 22, 05:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on July 22?$5.58Jul 22, 05:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on July 22?$2.89Jul 22, 05:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chongqing be 39°C on July 22?$5.08Jul 22, 00:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chongqing be 41°C on July 22?$1.04Jul 22, 00:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 39°C on July 22?$2.02Jul 22, 00:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 37°C on July 22?$0.21Jul 22, 00:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 40°C on July 22?$2.06Jul 22, 00:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 41°C on July 22?$2.07Jul 22, 00:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on July 22?$2.06Jul 22, 00:21 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on July 22?$0.66Jul 22, 00:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on July 22?$1.01Jul 22, 00:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on July 22?$1.04Jul 22, 00:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on July 22?$1.00Jul 22, 00:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on July 22?$1.03Jul 22, 00:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on July 22?$1.03Jul 22, 00:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on July 22?$3.02Jul 22, 00:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on July 22?$5.03Jul 22, 00:05 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
22 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 52/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 22
- Avg trade size
- $2.50
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 21, 23:58 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 22, 05:25 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.