Warped-Goodwill
0x2f8a74539987fa340a12502dd8c7af35c15a9813
Wallet digest
Activity score
30/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
85
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-294.87
Realised
$-52.17
Win rate
0%
84 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 85- YES
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
50 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-0 be the exact series outcome?
50 shares @ 6.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 20, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- YES
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 3 Spain?
40 shares @ 5.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 6, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 1 England?
38 shares @ 8.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 11, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- YES
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Morocco?
33 shares @ 6.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 4, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will Belgium win on 2026-07-10?
31 shares @ 16.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 10, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Spain?
29 shares @ 3.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 6, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 Spain?
29 shares @ 7.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 6, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 Spain?
29 shares @ 7.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 6, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- DRX
Valorant: Paper Rex vs DRX (BO3) - VCT Pacific Group Alpha
26 shares @ 22.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 3, 2026$0.00
$-6.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYExact Score: France 2 - 1 England?$1.39Jul 18, 10:40 UTC
- TRADESELLExact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Switzerland?$1.21Jul 12, 02:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Argentina win on 2026-07-11?$8.09Jul 12, 01:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Switzerland?$2.08Jul 12, 01:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Switzerland?$2.09Jul 12, 01:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Norway 2 - 1 England?$3.14Jul 11, 17:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Norway 1 - 2 England?$2.09Jul 11, 17:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYJude Bellingham: 1+ goals AND Harry Kane: 1+ goals AND Erling Haaland: 1+ goals AND Norway vs. England: O/U 9.5 Total Corners$2.00Jul 11, 06:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Switzerland? AND Exact Score: Norway 2 - 2 England?$1.99Jul 11, 06:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYNorway vs. England: Both Teams to Score AND Argentina vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 AND Argentina vs. Switzerland: Argentina O/U 1.5 AND Erling Haaland: 1+ goals$10.00Jul 11, 06:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYMikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals AND Harry Kane: 1+ goals AND Lionel Messi: 1+ goals AND Erling Haaland: 1+ goals$1.99Jul 10, 17:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpain vs. Belgium: Team to Advance AND Argentina vs. Switzerland: Team to Advance AND Norway vs. England: Team to Advance$2.99Jul 10, 17:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Belgium win on 2026-07-10?$5.21Jul 10, 17:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpain vs. Belgium: Team to Advance AND Spain vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score$2.00Jul 10, 17:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Switzerland 1 - 2 Colombia?$2.05Jul 7, 11:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Switzerland 0 - 2 Colombia?$2.05Jul 7, 11:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Colombia?$2.05Jul 7, 11:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Switzerland 0 - 1 Colombia?$2.05Jul 7, 11:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Egypt?$2.05Jul 7, 11:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Egypt?$2.05Jul 7, 11:03 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
59/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 84 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
38 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 24/100.
84 closed markets, 0% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 38
- Avg trade size
- $2.54
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 6, 12:37 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 18, 10:40 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 84 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.