Pessimistic-Toll
0x2fa14d63bf5af1beaec08b1541953fc3ab2b0b66
Wallet digest
Activity score
57/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
19
Open notional
$3.98
Total PnL
$-135.38
Realised
$-0.16
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 19- YES
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
469 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.9¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$3.98
$0.23
- YES
Will Frankenstein win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?
1250 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 15, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will Ethan Hawke win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?
873 shares @ 1.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 15, 2026$0.00
$-15.10
- YES
Will Wagner Moura win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?
233 shares @ 4.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 15, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will "Ice Out" or "Fuck Ice" be said at the Oscars?
200 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 15, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Leonardo DiCaprio win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?
148 shares @ 6.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 15, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will "Dream Big" be said at the Oscars?
116 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 15, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will "Shame" be said at the Oscars?
111 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 15, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET
58 shares @ 34.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 16, 2026$0.00
$-19.75
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET
53 shares @ 55.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 16, 2026$0.00
$-29.54
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00Apr 29, 00:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYT20 Series New Zealand vs South Africa: New Zealand vs South Africa$1.22Mar 17, 06:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYMagic vs. Hawks$10.00Mar 16, 20:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Starmer say "Constructive" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?$5.00Mar 16, 20:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31?$5.00Mar 16, 19:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET$10.00Mar 16, 19:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Rachida Dati win the Paris mayor election?$2.83Mar 16, 19:53 UTC
- TRADESELLJacob Elordi announced as next James Bond?$2.14Mar 16, 19:53 UTC
- TRADESELLAaron Taylor-Johnson announced as next James Bond?$8.97Mar 16, 19:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYJacob Elordi announced as next James Bond?$3.00Mar 16, 04:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYAaron Taylor-Johnson announced as next James Bond?$5.00Mar 16, 04:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWarriors vs. Wizards$5.00Mar 16, 04:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Rachida Dati win the Paris mayor election?$1.00Mar 16, 04:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYNetanyahu out by March 31?$1.00Mar 16, 04:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET$1.00Mar 16, 04:18 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET$13.47Mar 16, 04:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET$5.00Mar 16, 04:12 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET$0.01Mar 16, 04:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET$30.00Mar 16, 04:06 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET$49.92Mar 16, 04:05 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 38
- Avg trade size
- $10.67
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 13, 11:10 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 29, 00:15 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".