Lighthearted-Fur
0x2fa9016aec7790a5234e26e8c82515de38af2744
Wallet digest
Activity score
73/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
7
Open notional
$35.89
Total PnL
$-4.11
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Will Elon Musk be richest person on December 31?
9 shares @ 89.0¢·now 94.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$8.49
$0.49
- NO
Will Warren Buffett be richest person on December 31?
8 shares @ 98.7¢·now 98.7¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$8.00
$0.00
- NO
Will Larry Ellison be richest person on December 31?
7 shares @ 98.9¢·now 99.6¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$7.05
$0.05
- NO
Gemini 3.5 released by April 30?
4 shares @ 92.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$4.35
$0.35
- NO
Will OpenAI’s market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day?
4 shares @ 97.7¢·now 98.7¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$4.04
$0.04
- NO
1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?
4 shares @ 98.1¢·now 97.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.97
$-0.03
- YES
Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026?
6 shares @ 85.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk be richest person on December 31?$8.04Apr 30, 22:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Warren Buffett be richest person on December 31?$8.01Apr 30, 22:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Larry Ellison be richest person on December 31?$7.00Apr 30, 22:27 UTC
- REDEEMGemini 3.5 released by March 31?$5.02Apr 30, 22:26 UTC
- REDEEMDeepSeek V4 released by March 31?$7.01Apr 30, 22:26 UTC
- REDEEMWill Polymarket mindshare hit 90%?$10.10Apr 30, 22:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYGemini 3.5 released by April 30?$4.00Mar 31, 18:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYGemini 3.5 released by March 31?$5.00Mar 31, 18:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Polymarket mindshare hit 90%?$10.00Mar 31, 18:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYDeepSeek V4 released by March 31?$7.00Mar 31, 18:44 UTC
- REDEEMWill Frankenstein win Best Makeup and Hairstyling at the 98th Academy Awards?$2.25Mar 31, 18:42 UTC
- REDEEMNuclear weapon detonation by March 31?$6.47Mar 31, 18:42 UTC
- REDEEMWill the total number of TSA passengers for March 1 be between 2,000,000 and 2,200,000?$9.14Mar 31, 18:42 UTC
- REDEEMWill Leeds United FC win on 2026-02-28?$9.76Mar 31, 18:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the total number of TSA passengers for March 1 be between 2,000,000 and 2,200,000?$9.00Feb 28, 17:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026?$5.00Feb 28, 17:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYNuclear weapon detonation by March 31?$6.00Feb 28, 17:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Leeds United FC win on 2026-02-28?$8.00Feb 28, 17:44 UTC
- REDEEMWill MrBeast hit 480 Million subscribers by January 31?$2.01Feb 28, 17:36 UTC
- REDEEMWill global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in January 2026?$2.22Feb 28, 17:36 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 26
- Avg trade size
- $5.12
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Dec 27, 22:35 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 30, 22:27 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.