Wallet digest

active

Activity score

66/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

200

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-8.9K

Realised

$265.33

Win rate

90%

20 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 200

YES
Will Melania say "Career" during AI talk on Friday?
23000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 16, 2026
$0.00
$-23.00
YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 24?
2000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 24, 2026
$0.00
$-2.00
UP
Solana Up or Down - January 26, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET
2000 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 26, 2026
$0.00
$-20.00
NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 24?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 24, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00
UP
Solana Up or Down - March 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET
900 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 16, 2026
$0.00
$-10.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 20, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET
873 shares @ 2.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 20, 2026
$0.00
$-20.00
UP
Ethereum Up or Down - January 21, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET
822 shares @ 2.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 21, 2026
$0.00
$-20.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 24, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET
799 shares @ 5.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 24, 2026
$0.00
$-40.86
DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - January 21, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET
743 shares @ 16.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 21, 2026
$0.00
$-119.45
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 20, 5PM ET
722 shares @ 5.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 20, 2026
$0.00
$-40.00

Recent activity

TRADEBUYAlanyaspor vs. Kocaelispor: Both Teams to Score$101.53Mar 18, 12:41 UTC
TRADEBUYJeju SK FC vs. Ulsan HD FC: Both Teams to Score$60.00Mar 18, 11:48 UTC
TRADESELLWill FC Seoul win on 2026-03-18?$156.40Mar 18, 11:40 UTC
TRADESELLWill FC Seoul win on 2026-03-18?$5.13Mar 18, 11:39 UTC
TRADEBUYWill FC Seoul win on 2026-03-18?$92.60Mar 18, 10:32 UTC
TRADESELLValorant: DRX Academy vs FearX (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season$92.61Mar 18, 10:31 UTC
TRADEBUYSC Braga vs. Ferencvárosi TC: Both Teams to Score$217.83Mar 18, 10:03 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET$0.41Mar 18, 09:58 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET$0.25Mar 18, 09:58 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET$1.25Mar 18, 09:58 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET$10.00Mar 18, 09:58 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET$7.00Mar 18, 09:58 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET$0.33Mar 18, 09:58 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET$1.25Mar 18, 09:58 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET$1.25Mar 18, 09:58 UTC
TRADEBUYValorant: DRX Academy vs FearX (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season$50.00Mar 18, 09:33 UTC
REDEEMBruins vs. Canadiens$289.56Mar 18, 09:00 UTC
TRADEBUYBruins vs. Canadiens$165.05Mar 17, 23:12 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET$20.00Mar 17, 23:08 UTC
TRADEBUYCounter-Strike: UNO MILLE vs HereWeGoAgain (BO3) - CCT South America Series #10 Group Stage$30.00Mar 17, 22:54 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

42/100

read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

90% win rate over 20 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

14/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 44/100.

Resolved-only track record

review

20 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity42 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence67 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry31 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk44 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 49
Avg trade size: $56.49
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Mar 17, 00:45 UTC
Last active: Mar 18, 12:41 UTC
Win rate sample: 20 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 18:22:59 UTC·src:Polymarket Data