Ethical-Handrail
0x3016be8fd7ca13955c6933f417f3ea223f39f1fc
Wallet digest
Activity score
54/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-1.4K
Realised
$-295.04
Win rate
61%
87 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on May 15?
289 shares @ 1.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 15, 2026$0.00
$-5.03
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on May 14?
285 shares @ 1.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 14, 2026$0.00
$-5.11
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on April 28?
284 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 28, 2026$0.00
$-8.66
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C or higher on May 4?
254 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 4, 2026$0.00
$-2.50
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on May 1?
246 shares @ 2.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 1, 2026$0.00
$-5.95
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 7?
231 shares @ 2.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 7, 2026$0.00
$-5.88
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on April 28?
227 shares @ 2.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 28, 2026$0.00
$-6.08
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on May 1?
206 shares @ 2.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 1, 2026$0.00
$-5.17
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C or higher on May 27?
200 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 27, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on May 2?
188 shares @ 3.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 2, 2026$0.00
$-5.87
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on July 12?$3.20Jul 12, 06:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on July 12?$0.48Jul 12, 06:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on July 12?$3.10Jul 12, 05:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on July 12?$3.00Jul 12, 02:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on July 12?$6.92Jul 12, 02:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on July 12?$2.87Jul 12, 02:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on July 12?$0.11Jul 12, 02:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on July 11?$1.10Jul 11, 14:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on July 11?$2.70Jul 11, 14:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on July 11?$1.68Jul 11, 14:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on July 11?$0.13Jul 11, 14:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on July 11?$3.10Jul 11, 03:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on July 11?$3.00Jul 11, 03:21 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on July 11?$1.35Jul 11, 03:19 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on July 11?$1.30Jul 11, 03:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 30°C on July 11?$0.71Jul 11, 02:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on July 12?$0.65Jul 11, 02:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on July 12?$1.50Jul 11, 02:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on July 12?$2.04Jul 11, 02:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 30°C on July 11?$0.49Jul 11, 02:30 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
54/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
61% win rate over 87 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 24/100.
87 closed markets, 61% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $2.14
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 10, 15:15 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 12, 06:17 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 87 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.