Monthly-Trail
0x3022b186c9b28cd9eeb43adfc71014a0a66d9d10
Wallet digest
Activity score
52/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
31
Open notional
$86.62
Total PnL
$-113.46
Realised
$10.53
Win rate
6%
17 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 31- NO
Will Moderate Party (M) win at least 20% of all valid votes?
17 shares @ 87.0¢·now 88.5¢·exp Sep 13, 2026$15.26
$0.26
- NO
Will Christian Democrats (KD) win less than 5% of all valid votes?
18 shares @ 85.0¢·now 82.0¢·exp Sep 13, 2026$14.47
$-0.53
- YES
Anthropic IPO before 2027?
11 shares @ 90.0¢·now 86.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$9.56
$-0.44
- NO
Will Sweden Democrats (SD) win less than 16% of all valid votes?
10 shares @ 93.0¢·now 85.5¢·exp Sep 13, 2026$8.27
$-0.73
- NO
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?
8 shares @ 65.0¢·now 73.0¢·exp Dec 9, 2026$5.62
$0.62
- YES
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?
5 shares @ 95.0¢·now 98.1¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$5.16
$0.16
- NO
Will Jimmie Åkesson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?
5 shares @ 98.1¢·now 99.3¢·exp Sep 13, 2026$5.06
$0.06
- NO
Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the second most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?
5 shares @ 97.8¢·now 98.8¢·exp Sep 13, 2026$5.05
$0.05
- NO
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $310 in August?
5 shares @ 94.0¢·now 94.0¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$5.00
$0.00
- YES
Will Tidö parties win a majority in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections?
40 shares @ 12.5¢·now 11.5¢·exp Sep 14, 2026$4.59
$-0.41
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Christian Democrats (KD) win less than 5% of all valid votes?$15.09Aug 18, 07:41 UTC
- TRADESELLSweden Parliamentary Election: Liberals Win Seats?$15.55Aug 17, 21:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Sweden Democrats (SD) win less than 16% of all valid votes?$9.03Aug 17, 08:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Moderate Party (M) win at least 20% of all valid votes?$15.08Aug 17, 08:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYSweden Parliamentary Election: Liberals Win Seats?$10.31Aug 17, 08:56 UTC
- REDEEMWill Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,300 Week of August 10 2026?$8.24Aug 14, 23:03 UTC
- REDEEMS&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on August 14?$12.82Aug 14, 22:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on August 14?$10.09Aug 14, 12:02 UTC
- REDEEMWill Count Binface win 30–40% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?$10.33Aug 14, 11:12 UTC
- REDEEMWill Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?$4.20Aug 14, 08:37 UTC
- REDEEMS&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on August 13?$8.24Aug 13, 23:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,300 Week of August 10 2026?$7.04Aug 13, 11:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on August 13?$7.04Aug 13, 11:29 UTC
- REDEEMWill annual inflation be 3.1% or less in July?$5.12Aug 12, 14:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill annual inflation be 3.1% or less in July?$5.01Aug 9, 10:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?$5.09Aug 8, 08:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?$5.05Aug 8, 08:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Count Binface win 30–40% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?$10.01Aug 8, 08:25 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Orgryte IS win on 2026-08-08?$2.26Aug 8, 08:23 UTC
- REDEEMWill Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 Week of August 3 2026?$7.94Aug 7, 23:02 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
36/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
6% win rate over 17 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
32 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 42/100.
17 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 32
- Avg trade size
- $6.92
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 31, 23:02 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 18, 07:41 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 17 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.