Grown-Transaction-Significance
0x302ed771d73b7509a84ca5223dfbb42b149f88cc
Wallet digest
Activity score
70/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
31
Open notional
$25.78
Total PnL
$-396.65
Realised
$18.74
Win rate
64%
11 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 31- YES
KRG declares independence from Iraq by December 31?
239 shares @ 9.0¢·now 7.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$16.73
$-4.78
- YES
Will Grahm Platner drop out before the Midterms?
22 shares @ 26.0¢·now 14.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$3.19
$-2.53
- YES
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.45T by June 30?
29 shares @ 16.0¢·now 8.5¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$2.46
$-2.17
- YES
Will Paper Rex win Valorant Masters London 2026?
4 shares @ 39.0¢·now 46.5¢·exp Jun 21, 2026$1.76
$0.28
- YES
Will Concrete launch a token by June 30, 2026?
78 shares @ 9.0¢·now 2.1¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$1.64
$-5.39
- YES
Iran closes its airspace by May 27?
376 shares @ 15.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 27, 2026$0.00
$-56.47
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?
257 shares @ 17.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 19, 2026$0.00
$-43.66
- NO
Will IONQ (IONQ) beat quarterly earnings?
241 shares @ 10.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 6, 2026$0.00
$-24.10
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?
185 shares @ 22.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 26, 2026$0.00
$-41.89
- NO
Will Cerebras' market cap be at least $50B at market close on IPO day?
177 shares @ 41.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 14, 2026$0.00
$-72.57
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Grahm Platner drop out before the Midterms?$5.72Jun 14, 08:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Grahm Platner drop out before the Midterms?$5.88Jun 14, 07:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.45T by June 30?$4.64Jun 14, 00:05 UTC
- REWARD$4.44Jun 14, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Grahm Platner drop out before the Midterms?$7.14Jun 13, 15:00 UTC
- TRADESELLUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19?$3.47Jun 13, 13:37 UTC
- TRADESELLUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19?$3.53Jun 13, 11:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19?$8.00Jun 13, 05:51 UTC
- REWARD$5.24Jun 13, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?$3.25Jun 12, 15:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?$3.25Jun 12, 15:45 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%?$0.45Jun 12, 14:08 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%?$0.00Jun 12, 14:08 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%?$2.20Jun 12, 13:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill City Protocol launch a token by June 30, 2026?$0.50Jun 12, 06:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill X Æ A-Xii be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?$0.52Jun 12, 03:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?$2.35Jun 12, 02:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 AL Central title?$16.32Jun 12, 02:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026?$15.79Jun 12, 02:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Anthropic’s valuation hit (LOW) $875B by June 30?$6.32Jun 12, 02:50 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $12.16
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 10, 00:15 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 14, 08:12 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 11 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.