Jaunty-Probability
0x304d5b5a02b8d0fdfe126e371c1fb9550d731ad2
Wallet digest
Activity score
71/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
28
Open notional
$112.87
Total PnL
$-304.81
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 28- NO
Will Trump meet with Putin in Saudi Arabia before June?
51 shares @ 39.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 31, 2025$51.28
$31.28
- YES
Sea/Air ceasefire in Ukraine before May?
51 shares @ 34.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2025$50.56
$33.03
- NO
Will Pakistan reopen its airspace to India before May?
11 shares @ 99.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2025$11.03
$0.03
- YES
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by Friday?
1438 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 14, 2025$0.00
$-11.00
- YES
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian presidential election?
1389 shares @ 3.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-50.00
- YES
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025?
1250 shares @ 2.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 17, 2025$0.00
$-30.00
- YES
Will George Simion win the Romanian presidential election?
648 shares @ 16.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-109.16
- NO
Will Donald Trump visit the United Kingdom in 2025?
165 shares @ 12.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-20.00
- NO
Trump admin announces resumption of military aid to Ukraine in March?
163 shares @ 12.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2025$0.00
$-20.00
- YES
Will Australia win Eurovision 2025?
143 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 17, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill George Simion win the Romanian presidential election?$9.16May 18, 10:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Pietro Parolin be the next pope?$6.00Apr 30, 05:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Peter Turkson be the next pope?$5.00Apr 30, 05:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crin Antonescu win the second most votes in the first round of the Romanian Presidential Election?$4.00Apr 30, 04:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Victor Ponta win the second most votes in the first round of the Romanian Presidential Election?$5.00Apr 30, 04:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Pakistan reopen its airspace to India before May?$11.00Apr 30, 04:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Estonia win Eurovision 2025?$30.00Apr 4, 06:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYCNN/MSNBC sued for libel against Trump?$3.00Mar 16, 08:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYRussia x Ukraine Ceasefire by Friday?$10.00Mar 14, 05:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Călin Georgescu win the Romanian presidential election?$50.00Mar 12, 09:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill France win Eurovision 2025?$5.00Mar 11, 20:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYHouse passes funding bill by Thursday?$5.00Mar 11, 20:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrump admin announces resumption of military aid to Ukraine in March?$20.00Mar 11, 19:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYRussia x Ukraine Ceasefire by Friday?$1.00Mar 11, 19:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYElon Musk trillionaire in 2025?$5.00Mar 10, 22:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk buy MSNBC?$1.00Mar 10, 22:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Finland win Eurovision 2025?$1.00Mar 10, 21:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill France win Eurovision 2025?$5.00Mar 10, 21:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Belgium win Eurovision 2025?$1.00Mar 10, 21:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Australia win Eurovision 2025?$1.00Mar 10, 21:58 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 31
- Avg trade size
- $13.47
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 10, 19:29 UTC
- Last active
- May 18, 10:11 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".