Familiar-Mistake
0x30790c20dcef57b0b8a66f66c3a14eef430c1da6
Wallet digest
Activity score
49/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
22
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-54.00
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 22- NO
Will Jair Bolsonaro be arrested in Brazil by August 31?
5000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2025$0.00
$-5.00
- NATIONALS
Athletics vs. Nationals
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 14, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Will GPT-5 be released on August 7?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 7, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Will anyone say "OpenAI" 5+ times during the OpenAI livestream on August 7?
272 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 7, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
2025 July hottest on record?
250 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Trump deport 1,500,000-1,750,000 people?
250 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Trump deport 1,750,000-2,000,000 people?
200 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Trump deport 1,000,000-1,250,000 people?
85 shares @ 1.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Will Benjamin Sesko sign with a new club during the transfer window?
72 shares @ 1.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 3, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Will McLaren be the 2025 Constructors Champion?
67 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 7, 2025$0.00
$-2.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum reach $4400 in August?$26.00Aug 8, 18:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYPlasma >$1B market cap (FDV) one day after launch?$1.00Aug 7, 19:56 UTC
- TRADEBUY2025 July hottest on record?$1.00Aug 7, 19:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill MicroStrategy hold 630k+ BTC by August 31?$1.00Aug 7, 19:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYXRP above $2.90 on August 8?$1.00Aug 7, 19:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYSolana above $165 on August 8?$3.00Aug 7, 19:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Christopher Nkunku sign with a new club during the transfer window?$1.00Aug 7, 19:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jack Grealish sign with a new club during the transfer window?$1.00Aug 7, 19:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Xavi Simons sign with a new club during the transfer window?$1.00Aug 7, 19:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Darwin Nunez sign with a new club during the transfer window?$1.00Aug 7, 19:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Benjamin Sesko sign with a new club during the transfer window? $1.00Aug 7, 19:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump deport 2,000,000 or more people?$1.00Aug 7, 19:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump deport 1,750,000-2,000,000 people?$1.00Aug 7, 19:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump deport 1,500,000-1,750,000 people?$1.00Aug 7, 19:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump deport 1,000,000-1,250,000 people?$1.00Aug 7, 19:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election?$1.00Aug 7, 19:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill McLaren be the 2025 Constructors Champion?$2.00Aug 7, 19:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Sam Soverel win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship?$1.00Aug 7, 19:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill anyone say "OpenAI" 5+ times during the OpenAI livestream on August 7?$1.00Aug 7, 19:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill GPT-5 be released on August 7?$1.00Aug 7, 19:41 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 22
- Avg trade size
- $2.45
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 7, 19:29 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 8, 18:42 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".