Probable-Reference
0x3086ffd43c856573ff656056d4a32e32524f040f
Wallet digest
Activity score
46/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
5
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-75.31
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - July 10, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET
60 shares @ 64.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 11, 2026$0.00
$-39.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET
37 shares @ 27.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 11, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- CONOR MCGREGOR
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card)
36 shares @ 31.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 12, 2026$0.00
$-11.31
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET
27 shares @ 37.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 10, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET
10 shares @ 52.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 11, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYUFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card)$11.70Jul 11, 13:10 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET$0.00Jul 11, 12:15 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET$11.70Jul 11, 12:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET$10.10Jul 11, 12:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET$5.17Jul 11, 12:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET$5.26Jul 11, 11:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET$5.26Jul 11, 11:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 10, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET$39.96Jul 10, 20:59 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - July 10, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET$0.00Jul 10, 20:03 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - July 10, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET$39.68Jul 10, 20:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 10, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET$25.65Jul 10, 19:47 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET$0.00Jul 10, 19:46 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET$18.75Jul 10, 19:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET$15.21Jul 10, 19:41 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - July 10, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET$15.02Jul 10, 19:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 10, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET$15.00Jul 10, 18:59 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - July 10, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET$0.00Jul 10, 18:51 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - July 10, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET$15.94Jul 10, 18:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 10, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET$11.24Jul 10, 18:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET$10.44Jul 10, 18:37 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
11 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 49/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 11
- Avg trade size
- $14.09
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 10, 18:37 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 11, 13:10 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.