Wallet digest

active

Activity score

30/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-1.1K

Realised

$-172.67

Win rate

15 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 64

NO
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on May 14?
424 shares @ 39.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 14, 2026
$0.00
$-165.57
YES
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on May 14?
228 shares @ 20.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 14, 2026
$0.00
$-47.03
NO
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on May 4?
157 shares @ 34.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 4, 2026
$0.00
$-54.71
YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on May 13?
156 shares @ 6.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 13, 2026
$0.00
$-10.63
NO
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on May 13?
138 shares @ 62.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 13, 2026
$0.00
$-85.68
YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on May 4?
126 shares @ 25.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 4, 2026
$0.00
$-32.41
NO
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on May 13?
123 shares @ 13.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 13, 2026
$0.00
$-16.30
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET
110 shares @ 53.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 11, 2026
$0.00
$-59.04
NO
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on May 11?
103 shares @ 16.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 11, 2026
$0.00
$-16.60
YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on May 12?
102 shares @ 76.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 12, 2026
$0.00
$-77.69

Recent activity

REFERRAL_REWARD$7.07Jul 1, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$2.60Jun 30, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$8.15Jun 29, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$8.73Jun 28, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$4.09Jun 27, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$5.87Jun 25, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$4.17Jun 24, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$3.81Jun 23, 14:57 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$2.19Jun 22, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$2.28Jun 21, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$1.96Jun 19, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$1.54Jun 18, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$7.19Jun 17, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$7.62Jun 16, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$3.62Jun 15, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$1.86Jun 14, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$1.70Jun 13, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$6.05Jun 12, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$6.96Jun 11, 00:35 UTC
REDEEMWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on May 28?$124.18May 29, 11:49 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

41/100

read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

0% win rate over 15 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

14/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

30 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 33/100.

Resolved-only track record

review

15 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity37 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence50 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry45 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk33 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 30
Avg trade size: $1.54
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: May 28, 16:48 UTC
Last active: Jul 1, 00:35 UTC
Win rate sample: 15 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 21:17:22 UTC·src:Polymarket Data