Gleaming-Alder
0x30b7b487e35fb985427bfa2d85194207158de81c
Wallet digest
Activity score
81/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
4
Open notional
$26.7K
Total PnL
$-1.4K
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
27000 shares @ 80.8¢·now 85.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$23.1K
$1.3K
- YES
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?
3834 shares @ 80.8¢·now 93.0¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$3.6K
$465.61
- YES
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
5000 shares @ 1.9¢·now 0.4¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$22.50
$-72.50
- YES
Will the government shutdown last 7 days or more?
4093 shares @ 75.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 14, 2026$0.00
$-3.1K
Recent activity
- YIELD$2.06Jul 29, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$2.07Jul 28, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$2.07Jul 27, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$2.06Jul 26, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$2.06Jul 25, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$2.07Jul 24, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$2.06Jul 23, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$2.06Jul 22, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$2.04Jul 21, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$2.03Jul 20, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$2.05Jul 19, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$2.04Jul 18, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$2.03Jul 17, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$2.01Jul 16, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$2.01Jul 15, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$2.01Jul 14, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$2.01Jul 13, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$2.01Jul 12, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$2.01Jul 11, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$2.01Jul 10, 00:17 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
Wallet activity exists, but copy-risk is too high for interpretation.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
0%
Sample
low
1 ledger trades
Top market concentration
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
$31.3K · 100% of recorded whale volume
Recorded market concentration
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 8
- Avg trade size
- $6.0K
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 17, 06:03 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 00:11 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.