Mediocre-Hair-Gnu
0x30dbacb5e91c47e4aaf0b370f0695ac5dfbd9f16
Wallet digest
Activity score
35/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
15
Open notional
$2.47
Total PnL
$-13.90
Realised
$-0.37
Win rate
0%
11 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 15- NO
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 22, 2026?
1 shares @ 67.0¢·now 87.5¢·exp Aug 22, 2026$1.31
$0.31
- NO
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?
1 shares @ 85.0¢·now 99.3¢·exp Aug 15, 2026$1.17
$0.17
- YES
Algeria to score first vs. Jordan?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 23, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June?
541 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 11, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET
266 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 11, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw?
37 shares @ 5.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 23, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 22?
20 shares @ 4.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 22, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?
10 shares @ 10.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 7, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- AKIRA SANTILLAN
Targu Mures: Cezar Cretu vs Akira Santillan
8 shares @ 13.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 29, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Steve Witkoff attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?
8 shares @ 13.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 7, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 11, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET$1.07Aug 11, 13:44 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 11, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET$0.00Aug 11, 13:42 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 11, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET$1.30Aug 11, 13:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 11, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET$1.05Aug 11, 13:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 11, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET$1.02Aug 11, 13:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 11, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET$1.04Aug 11, 13:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces end of Iranian blockade by August 22, 2026?$1.00Aug 11, 13:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?$1.00Aug 11, 13:34 UTC
- REDEEMWill Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?$2.44Jun 28, 08:57 UTC
- REDEEMWill Brazil win on 2026-06-24?$1.39Jun 28, 08:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June?$1.07Jun 23, 20:42 UTC
- REDEEMWill Portugal win on 2026-06-23?$1.19Jun 23, 20:39 UTC
- REDEEMITF Taipei: Kayo Nishimura vs Yu Ning Tsai$1.33Jun 23, 10:07 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET$0.00Jun 23, 05:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET$1.06Jun 23, 05:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYITF Taipei: Kayo Nishimura vs Yu Ning Tsai$1.01Jun 23, 05:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?$1.02Jun 23, 05:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw?$1.03Jun 23, 04:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw?$1.03Jun 23, 04:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYAlgeria to score first vs. Jordan?$1.03Jun 23, 04:53 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
31/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 11 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
34 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 46/100.
11 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 34
- Avg trade size
- $1.03
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 22, 13:16 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 11, 13:44 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 11 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.