Spirited-Trowel
0x30ddeb68c89447715859115de18769cbe084cbfd
Wallet digest
Activity score
44/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
85
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-2.6K
Realised
$-38.42
Win rate
35%
17 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 85- NO
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $70 by end of March?
43902 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-205.46
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be -1°C on February 1?
13800 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 1, 2026$0.00
$-13.80
- UNDER
Bulls vs. Heat: O/U 237.5
10000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 1, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- ISLANDERS
Predators vs. Islanders
10000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 1, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in January?
10000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 1, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- HEAT
Bulls vs. Heat
10000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 1, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- ROCKETS
Spread: Rockets (-10.5)
10000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 1, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- LOPES
UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes (Featherweight, Main Card)
10000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 1, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- HOOKER
UFC 325: Dan Hooker vs. Benoit Saint Denis (Lightweight, Main Card)
10000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 1, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- CANUCKS
Maple Leafs vs. Canucks
10000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 1, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March?$323.77Mar 9, 06:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March?$4.7KMar 9, 06:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March?$4.9KMar 7, 22:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March?$4.9KMar 7, 22:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March?$921.31Mar 6, 19:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March?$500.00Mar 6, 19:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March?$1.4KMar 6, 19:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March?$138.74Mar 6, 16:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March?$69.16Mar 5, 18:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET$9.52Mar 5, 08:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET$9.00Mar 5, 07:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET$8.84Mar 5, 07:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET$1.52Mar 5, 05:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET$1.96Mar 5, 05:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March?$910.12Mar 5, 04:15 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET$63.82Mar 5, 03:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET$50.00Mar 5, 03:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $70 by end of March?$103.80Mar 3, 05:39 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March?$43.51Mar 3, 05:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March?$60.29Mar 3, 05:38 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
38/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
35% win rate over 17 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 51/100.
17 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $484.43
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 4, 22:29 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 9, 06:01 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 17 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.