Mysterious-Vernacular
0x30e3bf75b9d513a503324e0ae8557480f609b595
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-534.98
Realised
$-38.67
Win rate
49%
53 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- KINGS
Flames vs. Kings
10000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 14, 2025$0.00
$-10.00
- THUNDER
Spurs vs. Thunder
10000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 14, 2025$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 2025?
6283 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 23, 2025$0.00
$-13.40
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $104,000 on December 16?
5292 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 16, 2025$0.00
$-9.75
- YES
Next US strike on Syria on December 13?
5000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-5.00
- CANADIENS
Canadiens vs. Rangers
5000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 14, 2025$0.00
$-5.00
- PREDATORS
Predators vs. Avalanche
5000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 14, 2025$0.00
$-5.00
- NO
Will Justin Trudeau be named in newly released Epstein files?
4192 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-5.82
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 2025?
2500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 16, 2025$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on December 24?
2386 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 24, 2025$0.00
$-5.60
Recent activity
- REDEEMSydney FC vs. Auckland FC: O/U 4.5$0.73Jul 7, 13:42 UTC
- REDEEMBackpack FDV above $2B one day after launch?$1.43Jul 7, 13:42 UTC
- REDEEMIsrael x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by March 31?$2.04Jul 7, 13:42 UTC
- REDEEMWill Ariana Grande be nominated for Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?$2.27Feb 5, 13:07 UTC
- REDEEMWill Keir Starmer say "NHS" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?$50.49Jan 15, 03:57 UTC
- REDEEMWill fewer than 1550 tornadoes occur in the United States in 2025?$87.50Jan 15, 03:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Keir Starmer say "NHS" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?$18.78Jan 7, 12:41 UTC
- REDEEMWill RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-01-03?$6.00Jan 7, 05:37 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Happy New Year" this week? (December 29 - January 4)$27.09Jan 7, 05:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Luís Marques Mendes win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?$11.76Jan 7, 05:35 UTC
- TRADESELLInfinex FDV above $400M one day after launch?$205.01Jan 7, 05:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYInfinex FDV above $400M one day after launch?$54.27Jan 6, 20:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Luís Marques Mendes win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?$12.12Jan 6, 20:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYInfinex FDV above $400M one day after launch?$147.60Jan 6, 20:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill fewer than 1550 tornadoes occur in the United States in 2025?$14.00Jan 6, 19:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump say "Fuck" or "Fucking" or "Fucked" in January?$8.11Jan 5, 08:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Fuck" or "Fucking" or "Fucked" in January?$10.00Jan 4, 12:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump say "Stock market" this week? (December 29 - January 4)$102.91Jan 3, 17:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump say "Stock market" this week? (December 29 - January 4)$5.03Jan 3, 17:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump say "Stock market" this week? (December 29 - January 4)$4.73Jan 3, 17:03 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
52/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
49% win rate over 53 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
39 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 33/100.
53 closed markets, 49% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 39
- Avg trade size
- $35.99
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 3, 05:57 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 7, 13:42 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 53 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.