Awful-Shallot
0x30e8e44f8279413d8fe488f601b31a203a5038b0
Wallet digest
Activity score
71/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
131
Open notional
$0.15
Total PnL
$-452.77
Realised
$7.28
Win rate
100%
20 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 131- YES
Will Sadegh Mahsouli be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
100 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.15
$-0.05
- YES
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28?
2915 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 28, 2026$0.00
$-5.83
- NO
Will 1. FC Union Berlin win on 2026-05-10?
2073 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 10, 2026$0.00
$-3.15
- YES
Will Damac Saudi Club win on 2026-05-10?
1200 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 10, 2026$0.00
$-1.40
- YES
Will Club Cerro Porteño win on 2026-04-29?
1101 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-4.54
- YES
Will Al Taawoun Saudi Club vs. Al Ahli Saudi Club end in a draw?
1047 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 11, 2026$0.00
$-1.09
- YES
Will Club Universitario de Deportes vs. Club Nacional de Football end in a draw?
1000 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will Al Hilal Saudi Club vs. Damac Saudi Club end in a draw?
1000 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 28, 2026$0.00
$-30.00
- YES
Cruzeiro EC vs. CA Boca Juniors: Both Teams to Score
1000 shares @ 7.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 29, 2026$0.00
$-70.00
- YES
Will CDP Junior FC win on 2026-04-28?
938 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 29, 2026$0.00
$-18.75
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Ukraine re-enter Uspenivka by May 31?$0.08May 31, 21:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?$79.04May 30, 17:03 UTC
- REDEEMJames Comey mugshot released by May 5?$0.14May 30, 17:01 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on May 11?$0.28May 30, 17:01 UTC
- REDEEMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?$0.40May 30, 17:01 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on May 11?$0.53May 30, 17:01 UTC
- REDEEMWill "Mortal Kombat II" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 35m and 40m?$0.79May 30, 17:01 UTC
- REDEEMWill "Mortal Kombat II" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 40m and 45m?$0.87May 30, 17:01 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on May 10?$0.92May 30, 17:01 UTC
- REDEEMWill James Comey leave the country by May 15?$0.98May 30, 17:01 UTC
- REDEEMWill "The Sheep Detectives" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 15m and 18m?$0.99May 30, 17:01 UTC
- REDEEMWill 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3?$4.62May 30, 17:01 UTC
- REDEEMWill Cerebras' market cap be between $40B and $50B at market close on IPO day?$18.93May 30, 17:01 UTC
- REDEEMWill 0 contenders win the jackpot at The American Rodeo Championship Weekend 2026?$50.00May 30, 17:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrump endorses China's claim to Taiwan this week?$0.04May 12, 18:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on May 12?$0.00May 12, 15:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on May 12?$0.10May 12, 15:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on May 12?$0.02May 12, 15:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on May 12?$0.10May 12, 14:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on May 12?$0.82May 12, 13:59 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
34/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
100% win rate over 20 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
38 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 59/100.
20 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 38
- Avg trade size
- $2.53
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 12, 05:22 UTC
- Last active
- May 31, 21:12 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 20 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.