Agitated-Mobster
0x30f67d821c57a54e25e5e521dbd3b5b18309004f
Wallet digest
Activity score
87/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$8.1K
Total PnL
$-5.7K
Realised
$2.4K
Win rate
81%
69 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will Perry Johnson win the 2026 Michigan Governor Republican primary election?
402 shares @ 76.0¢·now 92.5¢·exp Aug 4, 2026$371.50
$66.27
- YES
Will NYC have more than 6 inches of precipitation in July?
567 shares @ 21.0¢·now 63.3¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$358.60
$239.67
- NO
Will Boeing say "Airbus" during earnings call?
399 shares @ 73.3¢·now 72.5¢·exp Jul 28, 2026$289.54
$-3.26
- NO
Will Dan Green be the Republican nominee for FL-09?
316 shares @ 82.0¢·now 84.5¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$266.82
$7.81
- NO
Will NYC have between 4 and 5 inches of precipitation in July?
300 shares @ 63.9¢·now 77.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$231.00
$39.40
- NO
Will PayPal say "Regulation" or "Regulator" or "Regulatory" during earnings call?
230 shares @ 78.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 28, 2026$229.88
$48.89
- YES
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?
330 shares @ 36.7¢·now 69.5¢·exp Jul 26, 2026$229.32
$108.27
- YES
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?
315 shares @ 64.8¢·now 71.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2027$223.30
$19.47
- NO
Will OpenAI announce a watch in 2026?
240 shares @ 82.9¢·now 90.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$217.56
$18.26
- YES
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
269 shares @ 66.4¢·now 77.0¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$207.08
$28.58
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Meta say "Hyperion" during earnings call?$9.74Jul 28, 13:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Meta say "Hyperion" during earnings call?$3.25Jul 28, 13:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 27-August 2?$8.50Jul 28, 13:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Meta say "Hyperion" during earnings call?$6.49Jul 28, 13:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 27-August 2?$1.40Jul 28, 13:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Meta say "Hyperion" during earnings call?$9.44Jul 28, 13:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Meta say "Hyperion" during earnings call?$27.87Jul 28, 13:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Meta say "Hyperion" during earnings call?$6.29Jul 28, 13:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Meta say "Hyperion" during earnings call?$12.19Jul 28, 13:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Meta say "Hyperion" during earnings call?$75.53Jul 28, 13:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Katherine Clark be the MA-05 Democratic nominee?$4.36Jul 28, 13:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Meta say "Algorithm" during earnings call?$2.90Jul 28, 13:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Meta say "Algorithm" during earnings call?$5.80Jul 28, 13:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Meta say "Algorithm" during earnings call?$5.80Jul 28, 13:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Meta say "Algorithm" during earnings call?$2.90Jul 28, 13:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Meta say "UK / United Kingdom" during earnings call?$4.12Jul 28, 13:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Meta say "UK / United Kingdom" during earnings call?$20.65Jul 28, 13:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Meta say "TikTok" during earnings call?$24.19Jul 28, 13:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Meta say "TikTok" during earnings call?$21.25Jul 28, 13:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Meta say "Age Verification" during earnings call?$23.31Jul 28, 13:05 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
76/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
81% win rate over 69 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
42 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 31/100.
69 closed markets, 81% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 42
- Avg trade size
- $14.46
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 28, 12:52 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 13:38 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 69 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.