Gleaming-Handlebar
0x30fb41b5a08fff5d3dd983f6323e3343931a7db4
Wallet digest
Activity score
77/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$8.9K
Total PnL
$-13.2K
Realised
$1.9K
Win rate
55%
163 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will Abdul El-Sayed win Genesee County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary?
534 shares @ 24.4¢·now 95.0¢·exp Aug 4, 2026$506.88
$376.63
- NO
Will Abdul El-Sayed win Macomb County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary?
430 shares @ 19.6¢·now 99.3¢·exp Aug 4, 2026$426.98
$342.68
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on August 4?
411 shares @ 67.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 4, 2026$411.26
$133.58
- NO
Will Abdul El-Sayed win Wayne County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary?
391 shares @ 27.2¢·now 93.5¢·exp Aug 4, 2026$366.16
$259.65
- NO
Will Hartzell Gray be the MO-04 Democratic nominee?
345 shares @ 26.6¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 4, 2026$344.67
$253.00
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 75°F or below on August 5?
288 shares @ 82.4¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 5, 2026$287.36
$50.53
- YES
Will Haley Stevens win Macomb County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary?
292 shares @ 44.0¢·now 98.3¢·exp Aug 4, 2026$286.61
$158.30
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on August 5?
281 shares @ 86.3¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 5, 2026$280.55
$38.28
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on August 5?
390 shares @ 58.4¢·now 66.0¢·exp Aug 5, 2026$257.32
$29.81
- YES
Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?
400 shares @ 65.5¢·now 63.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$252.00
$-10.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on August 6?$14.68Aug 5, 06:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on August 6?$9.45Aug 5, 06:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on August 5?$1.13Aug 5, 06:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Houston be between 96-97°F on August 6?$17.50Aug 5, 06:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on August 6?$18.40Aug 5, 06:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on August 6?$4.40Aug 5, 06:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Denver be between 98-99°F on August 6?$26.95Aug 5, 06:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on August 6?$29.50Aug 5, 06:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on August 5?$2.04Aug 5, 05:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 35°C on August 7?$6.48Aug 5, 05:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYGemini 4.0 released by August 31, 2026?$9.00Aug 5, 05:58 UTC
- MERGEWill Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from August 4 to August 11, 2026?$2.65Aug 5, 05:57 UTC
- MERGEWill the Senate vote on the CLARITY Act before the August recess?$3.33Aug 5, 05:57 UTC
- MERGEWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 32°C on August 6?$4.95Aug 5, 05:57 UTC
- MERGEWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on August 6?$5.00Aug 5, 05:57 UTC
- MERGEWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on August 6?$7.09Aug 5, 05:57 UTC
- MERGEWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on August 6?$7.41Aug 5, 05:57 UTC
- MERGEWill the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on August 6?$9.09Aug 5, 05:57 UTC
- MERGEWill the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on August 5?$10.00Aug 5, 05:57 UTC
- MERGESPY (SPY) Up or Down on August 5?$12.60Aug 5, 05:57 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
60/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
55% win rate over 163 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
29 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 32/100.
163 closed markets, 55% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 29
- Avg trade size
- $18.17
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 5, 05:47 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 5, 06:01 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 163 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.