First-Barbeque
0x31347fd77b7550f56e9468460802460cef282d99
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
7
Open notional
$1.62
Total PnL
$2.7K
Realised
$2.7K
Win rate
100%
3 closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?
2500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.1¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$1.25
$-3.75
- YES
Will SpaceXAI have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.1¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$0.25
$-0.75
- YES
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?
250 shares @ 1.5¢·now 0.1¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$0.12
$-3.62
- YES
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?
1900 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.00
$-7.99
- YES
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?
700 shares @ 1.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.00
$-11.20
- YES
Will OpenAI have the best AI Agent at the end of July 2026?
142 shares @ 14.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.00
$-20.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 2025?
20 shares @ 13.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 16, 2025$0.00
$-2.63
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceXAI have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?$1.04Aug 12, 16:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?$5.20Aug 3, 09:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?$2.31Aug 3, 08:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?$0.41Jul 17, 18:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?$1.50Jul 17, 18:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?$0.20Jul 17, 18:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?$0.22Jul 17, 18:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?$0.20Jul 17, 18:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?$0.37Jul 17, 18:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?$0.92Jul 17, 18:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?$0.03Jul 17, 18:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?$0.01Jul 17, 18:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?$1.80Jul 17, 17:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?$0.34Jul 17, 16:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?$1.26Jul 17, 16:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?$1.66Jul 17, 16:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?$0.15Jul 17, 16:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?$0.78Jul 17, 16:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?$0.79Jul 16, 18:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?$1.25Jul 16, 17:51 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
13/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
100% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
42 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 63/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 42
- Avg trade size
- $1.82
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Dec 6, 10:48 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 12, 16:48 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.