Realistic-Probability
0x31691f2d61f36e4976dd89bf1ca6bc2dde79593a
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
8
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-77.48
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET
1487 shares @ 4.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 18, 2026$0.00
$-59.48
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET
13 shares @ 78.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 13, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET
3 shares @ 62.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 19, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET
3 shares @ 35.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 19, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET
3 shares @ 70.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 20, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET
2 shares @ 48.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 19, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET
1 shares @ 84.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 12, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET
1 shares @ 97.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 19, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET$63.48Jun 18, 02:13 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET$5.50Jun 14, 09:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET$1.04Jun 14, 09:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET$1.04Jun 14, 09:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET$1.04Jun 14, 09:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET$1.04Jun 14, 09:35 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET$1.35Jun 14, 07:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET$1.02Jun 14, 07:33 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET$1.13Jun 14, 07:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET$1.01Jun 14, 07:23 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET$0.00Jun 13, 14:31 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET$40.00Jun 13, 14:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET$30.52Jun 13, 14:27 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET$7.96Jun 13, 14:23 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET$36.14Jun 13, 14:22 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET$4.70Jun 13, 14:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET$10.61Jun 13, 14:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET$30.36Jun 13, 14:18 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET$0.00Jun 13, 14:16 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET$0.00Jun 13, 14:16 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 36
- Avg trade size
- $9.12
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 12, 10:35 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 18, 02:13 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.