Wallet digest

active

Activity score

30/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-517.16

Realised

$-6.13

Win rate

28 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 53

DOWN
BNB Up or Down - June 28, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET
42 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 28, 2026
$0.00
$-0.42
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET
36 shares @ 32.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026
$0.00
$-11.79
DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - June 30, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET
29 shares @ 35.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026
$0.00
$-10.39
DOWN
XRP Up or Down - July 1, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET
29 shares @ 67.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026
$0.00
$-19.63
DOWN
BNB Up or Down - June 29, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET
27 shares @ 36.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026
$0.00
$-9.72
UP
Ethereum Up or Down - June 30, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET
26 shares @ 36.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026
$0.00
$-9.46
UP
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 30, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET
25 shares @ 46.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026
$0.00
$-11.49
DOWN
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET
23 shares @ 83.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 29, 2026
$0.00
$-19.28
UP
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET
21 shares @ 42.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 28, 2026
$0.00
$-8.96
DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - June 30, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET
21 shares @ 45.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026
$0.00
$-9.46

Recent activity

REDEEMHyperliquid Up or Down - July 1, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET$5.82Jul 1, 11:20 UTC
TRADEBUYHyperliquid Up or Down - July 1, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET$4.67Jul 1, 11:20 UTC
TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - July 1, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET$1.14Jul 1, 11:10 UTC
TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - July 1, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET$3.99Jul 1, 11:10 UTC
TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - July 1, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET$2.85Jul 1, 11:10 UTC
TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - July 1, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET$3.75Jul 1, 11:09 UTC
TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - July 1, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET$3.95Jul 1, 11:09 UTC
TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - July 1, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET$3.95Jul 1, 11:09 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET$27.00Jul 1, 11:05 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET$7.74Jul 1, 11:04 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET$7.92Jul 1, 11:04 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET$7.92Jul 1, 11:04 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET$18.00Jul 1, 11:00 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET$8.14Jul 1, 11:00 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET$7.70Jul 1, 11:00 UTC
REDEEMBNB Up or Down - July 1, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET$7.99Jul 1, 10:44 UTC
TRADEBUYBNB Up or Down - July 1, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET$1.80Jul 1, 10:29 UTC
TRADEBUYBNB Up or Down - July 1, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET$0.45Jul 1, 10:29 UTC
TRADEBUYBNB Up or Down - July 1, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET$1.34Jul 1, 10:29 UTC
REDEEMSolana Up or Down - July 1, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET$17.99Jul 1, 10:11 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Attention signal

60/100

read-only

Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

0% win rate over 28 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

14/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

41 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 25/100.

Resolved-only track record

review

28 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity41 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence93 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry55 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk25 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 41
Avg trade size: $3.73
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jul 1, 07:44 UTC
Last active: Jul 1, 11:20 UTC
Win rate sample: 28 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 20:49:21 UTC·src:Polymarket Data