Embellished-Blackberry
0x3170594f482764bc13c094c0109fd5304f0fec92
Wallet digest
Activity score
72/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
91
Open notional
$30.36
Total PnL
$-726.42
Realised
$11.94
Win rate
67%
6 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 91- YES
Will Iran target Ukraine by September 30, 2026?
154 shares @ 13.0¢·now 9.0¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$13.89
$-6.11
- YES
Will Iran target Ukraine by August 31, 2026?
225 shares @ 13.3¢·now 4.8¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$10.68
$-19.32
- YES
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
7 shares @ 27.0¢·now 34.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.55
$0.55
- YES
Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31 2027?
44 shares @ 11.3¢·now 4.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$2.09
$-2.91
- NO
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections?
25 shares @ 8.1¢·now 2.2¢·exp Sep 6, 2026$0.54
$-1.46
- YES
Will the Republican Party win the CA-15 House seat?
13 shares @ 4.2¢·now 2.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$0.33
$-0.21
- YES
Will 2026 rank as the sixth-hottest year on record or lower?
98 shares @ 4.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.15
$-3.87
- YES
Will François Ruffin be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French presidential election?
11 shares @ 9.0¢·now 1.3¢·exp Oct 11, 2026$0.14
$-0.86
- YES
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24?
1150 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-4.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET
1082 shares @ 2.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 12, 2026$0.00
$-25.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET$1.05Jul 28, 17:46 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET$11.23Jul 28, 17:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET$10.19Jul 28, 17:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET$7.41Jul 28, 17:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET$5.26Jul 28, 17:30 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET$6.59Jul 28, 17:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET$5.09Jul 28, 17:29 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET$3.85Jul 28, 17:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET$2.09Jul 28, 17:27 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET$9.21Jul 28, 17:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET$5.21Jul 28, 17:26 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET$5.12Jul 28, 17:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET$5.31Jul 28, 17:20 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET$0.52Jul 28, 17:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET$5.26Jul 28, 17:16 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET$9.99Jul 28, 14:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET$10.01Jul 28, 14:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET$5.30Jul 28, 14:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET$15.25Jul 28, 14:13 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET$4.73Jul 28, 14:12 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
20/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
67% win rate over 6 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
42 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 59/100.
6 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 42
- Avg trade size
- $6.93
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 28, 13:12 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 17:46 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 6 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.