0x31853e2a397603aa915ae385cc764c2c9ee27c83
0x31853e2a397603aa915ae385cc764c2c9ee27c83
Wallet digest
Activity score
31/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
14
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-313.77
Realised
$-153.08
Win rate
8%
13 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 14- YES
Will two people dissent the December Fed decision?
1629 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 10, 2025$0.00
$-17.95
- NO
Will three people dissent the December Fed decision?
736 shares @ 1.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 10, 2025$0.00
$-9.66
- NO
Will another person/thing be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?
707 shares @ 3.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-22.68
- YES
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after July 2025 meeting?
300 shares @ 9.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 30, 2025$0.00
$-27.20
- NO
Will the December 2025 FOMC decision result in a 25bp cut with >2 dissents?
235 shares @ 1.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 12, 2025$0.00
$-2.93
- YES
Will the December 2025 FOMC decision result in a 25bp cut with ≤2 dissents?
200 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 12, 2025$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua have no official winner?
111 shares @ 3.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 19, 2025$0.00
$-4.01
- YES
Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?
50 shares @ 55.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-27.49
- YES
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.2% in November?
27 shares @ 97.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 18, 2025$0.00
$-26.41
- YES
Will AS Monaco FC win on 2026-01-16?
20 shares @ 62.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 16, 2026$0.00
$-12.14
Recent activity
- TRADESELL2026 U.S. Senate Election: Democrats flip Republicans by March 31?$0.60Feb 1, 16:05 UTC
- SPLIT2026 U.S. Senate Election: Democrats flip Republicans by March 31?$8.60Feb 1, 16:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill turnout in the first round of the 2026 Costa Rican Presidential Election be between 64% and 66%?$4.95Feb 1, 16:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill turnout in the first round of the 2026 Costa Rican Presidential Election be between 66% and 68%?$4.85Jan 30, 12:14 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Jets win Super Bowl 2025?$0.00Jan 23, 05:48 UTC
- REDEEMWill monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in November?$0.00Jan 23, 05:48 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on January 14?$0.00Jan 23, 05:48 UTC
- REDEEMAS Monaco FC vs. FC Lorient: Both Teams to Score$0.00Jan 23, 05:48 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - November 21, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET$0.00Jan 23, 05:48 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - November 21, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET$0.00Jan 23, 05:48 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on January 14?$0.00Jan 23, 05:48 UTC
- REDEEMWill AS Monaco FC win on 2026-01-16?$0.00Jan 23, 05:48 UTC
- REDEEMWill monthly inflation increase by 0.2% in November?$0.00Jan 23, 05:48 UTC
- REDEEMRussia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?$0.00Jan 23, 05:48 UTC
- REDEEMWill Artificial Intelligence be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?$0.00Jan 23, 05:48 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - November 21, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET$0.00Jan 23, 05:48 UTC
- REDEEMSpread: Ole Miss (-7.5)$0.00Jan 23, 05:48 UTC
- REDEEMSpread: Houston Cougars (-10.5)$0.00Jan 23, 05:48 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - November 21, 5PM ET$0.00Jan 23, 05:48 UTC
- REDEEMWill Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua have no official winner?$0.00Jan 23, 05:48 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
36/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
8% win rate over 13 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
20 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 35/100.
13 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 20
- Avg trade size
- $3.79
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 12, 03:19 UTC
- Last active
- Feb 1, 16:05 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 13 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.