Watchful-Fruit
0x3188e1b29d992f00bf2e3b6b8ff63c25290c9e6c
Wallet digest
Activity score
76/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
96
Open notional
$44.08
Total PnL
$-43.66
Realised
$32.90
Win rate
74%
27 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 96- YES
Will Alpine have the highest constructor score at the 2026 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix?
9 shares @ 2.0¢·now 49.3¢·exp Aug 2, 2026$4.29
$4.12
- YES
Will Samantha Mota win the CA-37 House seat?
11 shares @ 16.7¢·now 37.0¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$4.07
$2.24
- YES
Will Toby Doeden win the South Dakota Governor primary runoff by 15–20%?
10 shares @ 1.6¢·now 37.1¢·exp Jul 28, 2026$3.80
$3.64
- YES
Will Larry Rhoden win the South Dakota Governor primary runoff by 15–20%?
10 shares @ 1.2¢·now 36.4¢·exp Jul 28, 2026$3.49
$3.37
- YES
Will Audi Revolut have the highest constructor score at the 2026 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix?
9 shares @ 2.0¢·now 37.5¢·exp Aug 2, 2026$3.27
$3.10
- YES
Will Williams have the highest constructor score at the 2026 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix?
9 shares @ 2.0¢·now 37.5¢·exp Aug 2, 2026$3.27
$3.10
- YES
Will Patrick Bumatay be the next Supreme Court nominee?
9 shares @ 1.3¢·now 33.1¢·exp Jan 19, 2029$2.83
$2.72
- YES
Will William Ruger be the next High Representative for Bosnia and Herzegovina in 2026?
29 shares @ 1.3¢·now 7.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.12
$1.73
- YES
Will Larry Rhoden win the South Dakota Governor primary runoff by 5–10%?
10 shares @ 2.0¢·now 21.6¢·exp Jul 28, 2026$2.07
$1.88
- YES
Will Arnold Allen fight Kevin Vallejos next?
7 shares @ 0.0¢·now 26.6¢·exp Mar 8, 2027$1.86
$1.86
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYFC Inter Turku vs. FK Sarajevo: Neither team to score first?$0.35Jul 16, 12:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on July 17?$0.08Jul 16, 12:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Amul Thapar be the next Supreme Court nominee?$0.14Jul 16, 12:28 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on July 16?$0.17Jul 16, 12:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on July 16?$0.17Jul 16, 12:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on July 16?$0.16Jul 16, 11:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on July 16?$0.11Jul 16, 11:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on July 16?$0.11Jul 16, 10:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be 6 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 14 - July 19?$0.31Jul 16, 10:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Merab Dvalishvili fight Sean O'Malley next?$0.05Jul 16, 09:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be 6 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 14 - July 19?$0.20Jul 16, 09:19 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Larry Rhoden win the South Dakota Governor primary runoff by more than 20%?$2.46Jul 16, 08:31 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on July 16?$0.10Jul 16, 08:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on July 18?$0.22Jul 16, 07:43 UTC
- REDEEMWill Ousmane Dembélé win the award for Best Soccer Player at the 2026 ESPY Awards?$0.00Jul 16, 06:51 UTC
- REDEEMWill Matthew Stafford win the award for Best Athlete, Men's Sports at the 2026 ESPY Awards?$0.00Jul 16, 06:51 UTC
- REDEEMWill Shohei Ohtani win the award for Best Athlete, Men's Sports at the 2026 ESPY Awards?$0.00Jul 16, 06:51 UTC
- REDEEMWill Lionel Messi win the award for Best Athlete, Men's Sports at the 2026 ESPY Awards?$0.00Jul 16, 06:51 UTC
- REDEEMWill Alexia Putellas win the award for Best Soccer Player at the 2026 ESPY Awards?$0.00Jul 16, 06:51 UTC
- REDEEMWill Argentina finish 4th place in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$0.00Jul 16, 06:51 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
51/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
74% win rate over 27 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
41 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 23/100.
27 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 41
- Avg trade size
- $0.23
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 16, 02:42 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 16, 12:48 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 27 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.