Palatable-Toot
0x31897ff3fbb343efd46309ca858a58e2f9ec562d
Wallet digest
Activity score
45/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$19.32
Total PnL
$-278.58
Realised
$-18.17
Win rate
4%
193 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 36°C on August 13?
11 shares @ 88.3¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 13, 2026$11.32
$1.32
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 31°C on August 13?
8 shares @ 64.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 13, 2026$8.00
$2.88
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C on June 18?
1500 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 18, 2026$0.00
$-1.50
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 18?
1500 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 18, 2026$0.00
$-1.50
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 41°C or higher on June 18?
1500 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 18, 2026$0.00
$-1.50
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on July 18?
1006 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 18, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 26?
1002 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 26, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 28?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 28, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C on June 28?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 28, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 3, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 3, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 13, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET$1.01Aug 13, 14:53 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 13, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET$1.01Aug 13, 14:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 13, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET$1.00Aug 13, 14:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 13, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET$1.02Aug 13, 14:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 13, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET$1.03Aug 13, 14:10 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 13, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET$1.32Aug 13, 14:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 13, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET$1.02Aug 13, 13:52 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 13, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET$1.03Aug 13, 13:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 13, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET$1.00Aug 13, 13:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 13, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET$1.07Aug 13, 13:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 13, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET$1.06Aug 13, 13:08 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 13, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET$1.14Aug 13, 13:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 13, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET$1.01Aug 13, 12:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 13, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET$1.03Aug 13, 12:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 13, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET$1.04Aug 13, 12:22 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 13, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET$1.11Aug 13, 12:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 13, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET$1.01Aug 13, 12:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 13, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET$1.06Aug 13, 11:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 13, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET$1.03Aug 13, 11:37 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 13, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET$1.06Aug 13, 11:31 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
51/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
4% win rate over 193 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
36 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 39/100.
193 closed markets, 4% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 36
- Avg trade size
- $2.84
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 8, 08:50 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 13, 14:53 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 193 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.