Wallet digest

Activity score

60/100

Performance: thin sample

Open positions

Open notional

$1.0K

Total PnL

$-872.52

Realised

$-524.22

Win rate

n/a

too few closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 17

NO
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
610 shares @ 84.0¢·now 96.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026
$588.46
$75.96
NO
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?
215 shares @ 93.0¢·now 97.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026
$208.71
$8.71
NO
Will Hillary Clinton be arrested before 2027?
150 shares @ 91.0¢·now 97.4¢·exp Jan 1, 1970
$146.10
$9.60
YES
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?
500 shares @ 70.0¢·now 15.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970
$75.00
$-275.00
YES
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
610 shares @ 10.0¢·now 3.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026
$21.59
$-39.41
YES
Will Matti Schmid win the 2026 PGA Championship?
500 shares @ 2.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 18, 2026
$0.00
$-13.50
YES
Will Nick Taylor win the 2026 PGA Championship?
500 shares @ 4.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 18, 2026
$0.00
$-22.00
YES
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?
500 shares @ 1.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 31, 2026
$0.00
$-6.50
YES
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 PGA Championship?
500 shares @ 10.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 18, 2026
$0.00
$-49.96
YES
Will Donald Trump announce Patrick Pizzella as the next United States Labor Secretary
119 shares @ 4.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970
$0.00
$-4.77

Recent activity

REDEEMWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$60.00Jul 20, 01:47 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jul 20, 00:10 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jul 19, 00:13 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jul 18, 00:13 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jul 17, 00:14 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jul 16, 00:17 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jul 15, 00:14 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jul 14, 00:12 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jul 13, 00:14 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jul 12, 00:10 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jul 11, 00:15 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jul 10, 00:11 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jul 9, 00:14 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jul 8, 00:17 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jul 7, 00:15 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jul 6, 00:16 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jul 5, 00:15 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jul 4, 00:12 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jul 3, 00:10 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jul 2, 00:15 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Do not mirror

0/100

read-only

Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.

No resolved edge sample

Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.

Elevated mirror risk

Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.

Late-entry profile

Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

Only 2 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Blocked

0/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.

Wallet signal

missing

No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.

Resolved-only track record

block

Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity0 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence7 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry12 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk54 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 0
Avg trade size: $0.00
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jun 2, 00:16 UTC
Last active: Jul 20, 01:47 UTC
Win rate sample: 2 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

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updated 04:59:01 UTC·src:Polymarket Data