Scrawny-Bake-Segment
0x3207496bab270a04c522298a747c01e432210aef
Wallet digest
Activity score
76/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
98
Open notional
$84.08
Total PnL
$-11.26
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 98- YES
Bank of Mexico increases interest rates by 50+ bps after August 2026 meeting?
332 shares @ 0.3¢·now 2.3¢·exp Aug 6, 2026$7.47
$6.47
- YES
Will Baidu have the #3 AI model at the end of July 2026?
139 shares @ 0.7¢·now 3.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$4.16
$3.16
- YES
Will the South African Reserve Bank cut by 50 bps or more at the July 2026 meeting?
231 shares @ 0.9¢·now 1.3¢·exp Jul 23, 2026$2.89
$0.89
- YES
Will Travis Etienne be traded?
186 shares @ 0.6¢·now 1.5¢·exp Jul 22, 2026$2.79
$1.71
- YES
Will Ariana Grande feature Nicki Minaj on Petal?
88 shares @ 1.1¢·now 2.6¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$2.34
$1.34
- YES
Bank of Mexico increases interest rates by 25 bps after August 2026 meeting?
377 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.5¢·exp Aug 6, 2026$2.07
$1.07
- YES
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
250 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.7¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$1.63
$0.63
- YES
Will Arda Güler win the Young Player Award at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
334 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.4¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$1.50
$0.50
- YES
Bank of England increases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2026 meeting?
1000 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 30, 2026$1.50
$-0.50
- YES
Will Kyler Murray be traded?
194 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.8¢·exp Jul 22, 2026$1.46
$0.42
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Travis Etienne be traded?$1.05Jul 12, 18:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kyler Murray be traded?$1.05Jul 12, 18:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Z.ai have the #3 AI model at the end of July 2026?$1.04Jul 12, 18:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Meta have the second best AI model at the end of July 2026?$1.04Jul 12, 18:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYReserve Bank of Australia decreases interest rates by 25 bps at the August 2026 meeting?$1.05Jul 12, 18:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYReserve Bank of Australia decreases interest rates by 25 bps at the August 2026 meeting?$1.05Jul 12, 18:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Bank of Brazil increase the target for the Selic rate by 50+ bps at the August meeting?$1.05Jul 12, 18:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Spain score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$1.04Jul 12, 18:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Myke Towers perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?$1.05Jul 12, 18:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bruno Mars perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?$1.05Jul 12, 18:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Justin Bieber perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?$1.05Jul 12, 18:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Shakira perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?$1.05Jul 12, 18:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Microsoft have the #3 AI model at the end of July 2026?$1.04Jul 12, 18:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill xAI have the #2 AI model at the end of July 2026?$1.04Jul 12, 18:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kenan Yıldız win the Young Player Award at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$1.05Jul 12, 18:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kobbie Mainoo win the Young Player Award at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$1.05Jul 12, 18:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?$1.00Jul 12, 17:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 50+ bps at the August meeting?$1.05Jul 12, 17:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill South Korea GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 2.0% and 2.4%?$1.05Jul 12, 17:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kendrick Lamar perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?$1.05Jul 12, 17:57 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 45/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $1.02
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 12, 17:47 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 12, 18:07 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.