0x3222405a40aa6f0d043553e1ce0d24520eb34c75
0x3222405a40aa6f0d043553e1ce0d24520eb34c75
Wallet digest
Activity score
86/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
22
Open notional
$227.24
Total PnL
$23.86
Realised
$-4.88
Win rate
36%
11 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 22- YES
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
26 shares @ 38.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$26.45
$16.23
- NO
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
19 shares @ 48.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$18.95
$9.72
- YES
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
18 shares @ 83.2¢·now 88.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$15.90
$0.95
- YES
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?
14 shares @ 69.4¢·now 95.2¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$13.66
$3.70
- NO
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
23 shares @ 45.5¢·now 50.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$11.52
$1.15
- NO
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Belgian Grand Prix?
11 shares @ 88.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 26, 2026$11.30
$1.36
- NO
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
22 shares @ 44.9¢·now 49.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$11.03
$1.03
- YES
Will the Democrats win the North Carolina Senate race in 2026?
12 shares @ 84.0¢·now 91.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$10.85
$0.89
- YES
Will Alabama use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?
12 shares @ 84.0¢·now 91.0¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$10.82
$0.83
- YES
Will the Democrats win the New York governor race in 2026?
11 shares @ 90.0¢·now 94.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$10.49
$0.50
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.01Aug 22, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 21, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 20, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 19, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 18, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 17, 00:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?$5.02Aug 16, 05:34 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 16, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 15, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 14, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 13, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 12, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 11, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 10, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 9, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 8, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 7, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 6, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 5, 02:30 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 4, 00:12 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
34/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
36% win rate over 11 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
13 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 36/100.
11 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 13
- Avg trade size
- $1.49
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 16, 03:10 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 22, 00:14 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 11 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.