Affectionate-Carport
0x3232dbd048b62d84dbe5cde4c414e1d88a419a60
Wallet digest
Activity score
32/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
38
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-99.19
Realised
$-10.63
Win rate
6%
36 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 38- YES
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on July 3?
140 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 3, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on July 2?
138 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 2, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C or higher on July 2?
136 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 2, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on July 3?
116 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 3, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- SENEGAL
Belgium vs. Senegal: Team to Advance
56 shares @ 1.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on July 5?
43 shares @ 2.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 5, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on June 30?
42 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-0.82
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on July 1?
36 shares @ 2.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 20, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET
28 shares @ 40.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 20, 2026$0.00
$-11.14
- NO
Will France win on 2026-07-09?
26 shares @ 39.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 9, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET$2.50Aug 14, 15:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET$2.03Aug 14, 15:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET$1.05Aug 14, 15:36 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - August 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET$1.62Aug 14, 15:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET$1.98Aug 14, 15:32 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - August 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET$2.11Aug 14, 15:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET$1.26Aug 14, 15:30 UTC
- REDEEMSpain vs. Argentina: O/U 1.5$5.00Jul 19, 22:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpain vs. Argentina: O/U 1.5$1.59Jul 19, 15:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill France win on 2026-07-09?$10.18Jul 9, 15:21 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Mexico vs. England end in a draw?$8.30Jul 6, 02:53 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on July 6?$0.18Jul 6, 01:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mexico vs. England end in a draw?$10.20Jul 6, 00:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on July 6?$1.05Jul 4, 18:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill France win on 2026-07-04?$4.91Jul 4, 18:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill France win on 2026-07-04?$5.02Jul 4, 18:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on July 5?$1.05Jul 4, 04:07 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET$10.10Jul 4, 03:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET$10.01Jul 4, 03:49 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET$16.49Jul 4, 02:36 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
59/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
6% win rate over 36 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
42 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 24/100.
36 closed markets, 6% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 42
- Avg trade size
- $2.54
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 2, 16:15 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 14, 15:41 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 36 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.