Ugly-Harmonica
0x323448bda09fe48d58af9ce1a858c91f79e08b1a
Wallet digest
Activity score
42/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-191.1K
Realised
$-16.5K
Win rate
30%
64 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET
11901 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 20, 2026$0.00
$-123.70
- UNDER
Nottingham Forest FC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 1.5
11032 shares @ 54.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 10, 2026$0.00
$-6.0K
- UNDER
FC Lorient vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace: O/U 4.5
9460 shares @ 75.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 26, 2026$0.00
$-7.2K
- UNDER
West Ham United FC vs. Everton FC: O/U 1.5
8231 shares @ 61.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 25, 2026$0.00
$-5.0K
- UNDER
Hamburger SV vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 4.5
6951 shares @ 39.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 10, 2026$0.00
$-2.8K
- UNDER
Millwall FC vs. Hull City AFC: O/U 1.5
6321 shares @ 42.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 11, 2026$0.00
$-2.7K
- UNDER
SSC Napoli vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 3.5
6085 shares @ 60.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 11, 2026$0.00
$-3.7K
- NO
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Detroit Tigers vs. New York Mets
5092 shares @ 59.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 21, 2026$0.00
$-3.0K
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 10PM ET
5021 shares @ 36.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 26, 2026$0.00
$-1.8K
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET
4972 shares @ 53.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 13, 2026$0.00
$-2.6K
Recent activity
- TAKER_REBATE$30.76Jul 9, 21:09 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$4.18Jul 5, 00:45 UTC
- TAKER_REBATE$4.02Jul 5, 00:10 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET$0.87Jul 4, 20:40 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET$1.47Jul 4, 20:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET$5.11Jul 4, 20:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET$20.63Jul 4, 20:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET$10.34Jul 4, 20:33 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET$25.40Jul 4, 20:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET$15.20Jul 4, 20:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET$9.14Jul 4, 20:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET$34.12Jul 4, 20:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET$34.85Jul 4, 20:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET$39.62Jul 4, 20:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET$68.49Jul 4, 20:25 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET$93.60Jul 4, 20:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET$27.72Jul 4, 20:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET$3.91Jul 4, 20:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET$44.37Jul 4, 20:22 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET$148.93Jul 4, 20:18 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Attention signal
65/100Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
30% win rate over 64 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
46 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 32/100.
64 closed markets, 30% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $29.42
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 4, 19:48 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 9, 21:09 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 64 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.