Frilly-Spy
0x3240acbd9656bc1e16fc3ee73d6c8d9047c0fae2
Wallet digest
Activity score
77/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
151
Open notional
$15.50
Total PnL
$-3.0K
Realised
$554.86
Win rate
92%
24 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 151- YES
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
119 shares @ 8.4¢·now 7.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$8.38
$-1.62
- YES
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
385 shares @ 2.6¢·now 1.8¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$7.12
$-2.88
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on May 24?
10000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 24, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET
2891 shares @ 3.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 19, 2026$0.00
$-105.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET
2544 shares @ 2.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 25, 2026$0.00
$-52.62
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET
1477 shares @ 2.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 26, 2026$0.00
$-40.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET
1257 shares @ 3.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 21, 2026$0.00
$-45.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET
1143 shares @ 1.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 1, 2026$0.00
$-20.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET
1000 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 21, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET
866 shares @ 10.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 19, 2026$0.00
$-90.00
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00Jul 5, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 4, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 3, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 2, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 1, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 30, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 29, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 28, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 27, 00:18 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 26, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 25, 00:19 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 24, 00:19 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 23, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 22, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 21, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 20, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 19, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 18, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 17, 00:20 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 16, 00:17 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
42/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
92% win rate over 24 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
21 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 54/100.
24 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 21
- Avg trade size
- $20.25
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 1, 04:40 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 5, 00:12 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 24 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.