Upbeat-Nail
0x3270f3b6443f77ba7b1518f450d927f6915acd8d
Wallet digest
Activity score
48/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
143
Open notional
$63.19
Total PnL
$-87.16
Realised
$-1.36
Win rate
0%
5 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 143- NO
Will BNK FEARX win First Stand 2026?
9 shares @ 95.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 22, 2026$9.19
$0.41
- MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS
North Dakota State Bison vs. Michigan State Spartans
8 shares @ 93.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 19, 2026$8.35
$0.58
- NO
Will Google Gemini be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 20?
8 shares @ 96.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 20, 2026$8.27
$0.33
- YES
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?
7 shares @ 90.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$6.57
$0.66
- NO
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on March 20?
6 shares @ 89.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 20, 2026$5.93
$0.65
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C or higher on March 19?
6 shares @ 92.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 19, 2026$5.89
$0.47
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on March 20?
6 shares @ 91.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 20, 2026$5.87
$0.49
- NO
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?
6 shares @ 94.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$5.57
$0.33
- NO
Will Solana reach $130 in March?
6 shares @ 94.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 1, 2026$5.55
$0.33
- NO
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in March?
1 shares @ 93.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 1, 2026$1.00
$0.07
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 13°C on March 20?$5.28Mar 19, 14:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 10°C on March 20?$5.01Mar 19, 14:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 10°C on March 20?$5.35Mar 19, 09:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 18°C on March 19?$4.90Mar 19, 09:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYLoL: Bilibili Gaming vs G2 Esports - Game 3 Winner$0.50Mar 18, 16:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYLoL: Bilibili Gaming vs G2 Esports - Game 3 Winner$0.50Mar 18, 16:43 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026?$0.25Mar 18, 16:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYCounter-Strike: Team Falcons vs NRG - Map 2 Winner$0.50Mar 18, 12:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026?$0.50Mar 18, 12:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYNorth Dakota State Bison vs. Michigan State Spartans$7.77Mar 18, 12:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 18°C on March 19?$5.42Mar 18, 12:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on March 20?$5.38Mar 18, 12:03 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 17°C or higher on March 17?$5.00Mar 18, 11:47 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Seattle be 49°F or below on March 18?$5.00Mar 18, 11:47 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on March 17?$5.00Mar 18, 11:47 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C or below on March 18?$5.87Mar 18, 11:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C or higher on March 19?$5.42Mar 17, 17:48 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump’s approval rating be between 41.0 and 41.4 on March 20, 2026?$5.19Mar 17, 17:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump’s approval rating be between 41.0 and 41.4 on March 20, 2026?$5.68Mar 17, 14:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C or below on March 18?$5.40Mar 17, 14:17 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
19/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 5 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
41 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 48/100.
5 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 41
- Avg trade size
- $2.43
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 16, 17:04 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 19, 14:17 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.