0x3274ec700b34490e0a8e4a47ce89dd578644e9d6
0x3274ec700b34490e0a8e4a47ce89dd578644e9d6
Wallet digest
Activity score
53/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
141
Open notional
$0.85
Total PnL
$-9.04
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 141- YES
Will David Crowley win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?
5 shares @ 0.6¢·now 11.3¢·exp Aug 11, 2026$0.57
$0.54
- YES
Will John Beccia be the Democratic nominee for MA-06?
5 shares @ 0.8¢·now 1.0¢·exp Sep 15, 2026$0.05
$0.01
- YES
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
5 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.9¢·exp Oct 10, 2026$0.05
$0.02
- YES
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
5 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.8¢·exp Oct 10, 2026$0.04
$0.00
- YES
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
5 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.7¢·exp Oct 10, 2026$0.04
$0.01
- YES
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in China before 2027?
5 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.02
$-0.01
- YES
Will Adam Crum win the 2026 Alaska governor election?
5 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.4¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$0.02
$0.01
- YES
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Ukraine before 2027?
5 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.02
$-0.01
- YES
Will Edna DeVries win the 2026 Alaska governor election?
5 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.3¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$0.01
$0.00
- YES
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in India before 2027?
5 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.01
$-0.02
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 8°C or below on March 14?$0.00Mar 13, 11:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 8°C or below on March 14?$0.00Mar 13, 06:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Munich be 7°C or below on March 14?$0.10Mar 13, 06:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chicago be 31°F or below on March 14?$0.02Mar 13, 06:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 18°C or below on March 14?$0.10Mar 13, 06:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Solana dip to $50 March 9-15?$0.10Mar 13, 06:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill XRP reach $2.10 March 9-15?$0.05Mar 13, 06:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on March 14?$0.01Mar 13, 06:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Matthias Schmid win the 2026 THE PLAYERS Championship?$0.01Mar 13, 06:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum dip to $1,400 March 9-15?$0.10Mar 13, 06:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Solana dip to $40 March 9-15?$0.07Mar 13, 06:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Solana dip to $40 March 9-15?$0.03Mar 13, 06:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill XRP dip to $0.70 March 9-15?$0.03Mar 13, 06:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill XRP dip to $0.80 March 9-15?$0.06Mar 13, 06:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $58,000 March 9-15?$0.01Mar 13, 06:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Reminders of Him" score at least 40 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?$0.00Mar 13, 06:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $58,000 March 9-15?$0.06Mar 13, 06:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Matthias Schmid win the 2026 THE PLAYERS Championship?$0.00Mar 13, 06:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Apple (AAPL) close above $270 on March 13?$0.01Mar 13, 06:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jack Draper win the 2026 BNP Paribas Open Men’s Singles Tournament?$0.01Mar 13, 06:11 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 57/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $0.04
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 13, 05:10 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 13, 11:35 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.