Wallet digest

active

Activity score

30/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

200

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-6.7K

Realised

$-691.10

Win rate

197 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 200

DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET
100 shares @ 29.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 26, 2026
$0.00
$-29.00
DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET
100 shares @ 45.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 23, 2026
$0.00
$-45.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET
100 shares @ 22.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 22, 2026
$0.00
$-22.00
UP
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET
100 shares @ 2.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 24, 2026
$0.00
$-2.29
DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET
100 shares @ 41.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 25, 2026
$0.00
$-41.10
DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET
100 shares @ 9.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 22, 2026
$0.00
$-9.00
UP
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET
100 shares @ 41.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 22, 2026
$0.00
$-41.42
DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET
100 shares @ 14.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 27, 2026
$0.00
$-14.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET
100 shares @ 55.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 26, 2026
$0.00
$-55.00
UP
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET
100 shares @ 26.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 23, 2026
$0.00
$-26.90

Recent activity

TAKER_REBATE$65.29Jul 9, 21:16 UTC
TAKER_REBATE$1.47Jul 1, 00:10 UTC
TAKER_REBATE$3.05Jul 1, 00:10 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET$100.00Jun 28, 06:10 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - June 28, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET$29.98Jun 28, 06:08 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET$45.72Jun 28, 06:08 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - June 27, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET$3.55Jun 28, 03:19 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET$40.67Jun 28, 03:19 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET$100.00Jun 28, 01:20 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - June 27, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET$25.58Jun 28, 01:18 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET$53.75Jun 28, 01:18 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - June 27, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET$61.15Jun 28, 00:38 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET$20.10Jun 28, 00:38 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - June 27, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET$49.35Jun 27, 23:43 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET$26.31Jun 27, 23:43 UTC
REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - June 27, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET$100.00Jun 27, 23:25 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET$99.99Jun 27, 23:19 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - June 27, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET$41.87Jun 27, 23:16 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET$41.68Jun 27, 23:16 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - June 27, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET$5.65Jun 27, 23:13 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

59/100

read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

0% win rate over 197 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

29/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

38 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 31/100.

Resolved-only track record

pass

197 closed markets, 0% win rate.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity40 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry47 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk31 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 38
Avg trade size: $25.48
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jun 27, 00:58 UTC
Last active: Jul 9, 21:16 UTC
Win rate sample: 197 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 14:56:33 UTC·src:Polymarket Data