Wallet digest

active

Activity score

31/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-1.5K

Realised

$-77.50

Win rate

66 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 67

DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET
697 shares @ 13.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 16, 2026
$0.00
$-94.92
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 1, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET
484 shares @ 10.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2026
$0.00
$-49.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET
309 shares @ 13.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 16, 2026
$0.00
$-40.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 1, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET
307 shares @ 32.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2026
$0.00
$-100.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET
283 shares @ 10.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 16, 2026
$0.00
$-29.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET
231 shares @ 26.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 24, 2026
$0.00
$-60.00
UP
BNB Up or Down - August 10, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET
222 shares @ 40.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 10, 2026
$0.00
$-90.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET
156 shares @ 32.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 23, 2026
$0.00
$-50.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET
152 shares @ 33.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 16, 2026
$0.00
$-50.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET
146 shares @ 41.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 23, 2026
$0.00
$-60.00

Recent activity

TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET$31.11Aug 16, 16:21 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET$101.61Aug 16, 15:32 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 14, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET$10.63Aug 14, 09:16 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET$7.40Aug 14, 09:00 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - August 14, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET$7.35Aug 14, 09:00 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 14, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET$3.16Aug 14, 08:57 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 11, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET$17.97Aug 11, 12:20 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 10, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET$5.27Aug 10, 23:36 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 10, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET$44.36Aug 10, 16:26 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - August 10, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET$43.52Aug 10, 16:25 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 10, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET$4.29Aug 10, 16:22 UTC
TRADEBUYBNB Up or Down - August 10, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET$94.64Aug 10, 16:17 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 8, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET$17.99Aug 8, 16:25 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 8, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET$22.24Aug 8, 07:13 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 6, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET$24.29Aug 6, 12:10 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 3, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET$11.74Aug 3, 10:42 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 1, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET$52.57Aug 1, 21:01 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - August 1, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET$52.09Aug 1, 21:00 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 1, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET$26.18Aug 1, 20:55 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 1, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET$105.72Aug 1, 20:51 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Attention signal

62/100

read-only

Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

2% win rate over 66 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

29/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 34/100.

Resolved-only track record

pass

66 closed markets, 2% win rate.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity72 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry69 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk34 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 49
Avg trade size: $58.33
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jul 23, 16:48 UTC
Last active: Aug 16, 16:21 UTC
Win rate sample: 66 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 17:30:26 UTC·src:Polymarket Data