Wallet digest

active

Activity score

48/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

200

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-3.2K

Realised

$33.28

Win rate

48%

23 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 200

DOWN
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET
687 shares @ 40.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 21, 2026
$0.00
$-279.52
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET
170 shares @ 81.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 24, 2026
$0.00
$-137.97
ELLA SEIDEL
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Alina Korneeva vs Ella Seidel
128 shares @ 3.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 11, 2026
$0.00
$-3.95
UP
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET
125 shares @ 4.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 22, 2026
$0.00
$-5.00
UP
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET
115 shares @ 91.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 21, 2026
$0.00
$-104.76
DOWN
BNB Up or Down - May 24, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET
113 shares @ 23.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 24, 2026
$0.00
$-26.68
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET
110 shares @ 23.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 4, 2026
$0.00
$-26.08
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET
110 shares @ 6.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 5, 2026
$0.00
$-6.91
UP
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET
95 shares @ 94.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 20, 2026
$0.00
$-89.65
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET
87 shares @ 37.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 4, 2026
$0.00
$-32.85

Recent activity

REDEEMXRP Up or Down - May 25, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET$3.00May 25, 13:25 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET$3.97May 25, 13:25 UTC
TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - May 25, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET$2.86May 25, 13:24 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET$3.63May 25, 13:23 UTC
REDEEMDogecoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET$3.00May 25, 13:05 UTC
REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - May 25, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET$3.60May 25, 13:05 UTC
TRADEBUYDogecoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET$2.86May 25, 13:03 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - May 25, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET$3.43May 25, 13:03 UTC
REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - May 25, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET$3.47May 25, 13:00 UTC
REDEEMBNB Up or Down - May 25, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET$2.60May 25, 13:00 UTC
REDEEMXRP Up or Down - May 25, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET$2.07May 25, 13:00 UTC
REDEEMDogecoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET$2.86May 25, 13:00 UTC
TRADEBUYBNB Up or Down - May 25, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET$2.19May 25, 12:58 UTC
TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - May 25, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET$1.87May 25, 12:58 UTC
TRADEBUYDogecoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET$2.67May 25, 12:58 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - May 25, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET$3.25May 25, 12:58 UTC
REDEEMBNB Up or Down - May 25, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET$3.14May 25, 12:55 UTC
REDEEMDogecoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET$2.27May 25, 12:55 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET$2.83May 25, 12:55 UTC
TRADEBUYDogecoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET$2.10May 25, 12:54 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

48/100

read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

48% win rate over 23 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

14/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

26 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 35/100.

Resolved-only track record

review

23 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity36 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence77 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry34 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk35 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 26
Avg trade size: $2.73
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: May 25, 12:13 UTC
Last active: May 25, 13:25 UTC
Win rate sample: 23 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 12:06:12 UTC·src:Polymarket Data