Ill-Boatyard
0x3368b1377ce46398542a01b88cff78bff47c2079
Wallet digest
Activity score
38/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
64
Open notional
$35.82
Total PnL
$-1.9K
Realised
$-3.66
Win rate
0%
31 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 64- YES
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
23882 shares @ 2.7¢·now 0.1¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$35.82
$-607.43
- YES
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?
1534 shares @ 7.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 25, 2026$0.00
$-114.44
- YES
Will Trump attend his son's wedding?
1300 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 25, 2026$0.00
$-38.70
- YES
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
1100 shares @ 5.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-62.60
- NO
Claude 4.8 released by June 15?
1000 shares @ 4.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.00
$-48.00
- YES
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
700 shares @ 7.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-51.20
- YES
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?
500 shares @ 8.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-40.00
- PARIS SAINT-GERMAIN FC
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-2.5)
500 shares @ 7.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 30, 2026$0.00
$-35.00
- YES
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
500 shares @ 3.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-17.50
- YES
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26?
100 shares @ 69.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 26, 2026$0.00
$-69.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$36.75Aug 1, 15:22 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 20, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 19, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 18, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 17, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 16, 00:10 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$4.29Jul 15, 00:35 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 15, 00:10 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$4.99Jul 14, 00:35 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 14, 00:14 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$5.53Jul 13, 01:02 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 13, 00:14 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$4.77Jul 12, 00:35 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 12, 00:15 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$2.91Jul 11, 00:35 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 11, 00:12 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$2.92Jul 10, 00:35 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 10, 00:16 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$2.32Jul 9, 00:48 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 9, 00:11 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
55/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 31 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
5 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 56/100.
31 closed markets, 0% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 5
- Avg trade size
- $24.32
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 22, 11:30 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 1, 15:22 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 31 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.