Wallet profile

Fearless-Polo

0x33d41dc0a5e652c60d177fc33fae4b655883c167

activity 53/100

Wallet digest

active

Activity score

53/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

50

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-6.4K

Realised

$701.48

Win rate

63%

24 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 50

Recent activity

  • REFERRAL_REWARD$7.61Jul 7, 00:51 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$1.23Jul 6, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$3.84Jul 5, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$5.27Jul 3, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$3.26Jul 2, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$12.80Jul 1, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$6.93Jun 30, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$17.95Jun 29, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$9.54Jun 28, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$14.96Jun 26, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$1.67Jun 25, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$9.09Jun 24, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$15.40Jun 23, 14:57 UTC
  • TAKER_REBATE$1.31Jun 23, 00:11 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$11.10Jun 22, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$7.46Jun 21, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$18.86Jun 20, 00:37 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$14.10Jun 19, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$1.79Jun 17, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$1.22Jun 16, 00:35 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

42/100
read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Late-entry profile

Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

63% win rate over 24 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

14/100
no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal
pass

19 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 49/100.

Resolved-only track record
review

24 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.

Cost / slippage
missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk
missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity
missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation
missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution
missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity33 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence80 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry6 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk49 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time)
19
Avg trade size
$221.50
Top category
—
Category concentration
0%
First seen
Jun 3, 08:07 UTC
Last active
Jul 7, 00:51 UTC
Win rate sample
24 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

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updated 01:59:14 UTC·src:Polymarket Data