Frail-Granny
0x33e5945c1f0843c3068d8418ba90c2accd081c91
Wallet digest
Activity score
70/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
83
Open notional
$2.3K
Total PnL
$-3.9K
Realised
$-180.28
Win rate
38%
8 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 83- YES
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?
1900 shares @ 36.8¢·now 35.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$674.65
$-25.27
- YES
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?
1200 shares @ 52.1¢·now 54.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$654.15
$28.62
- YES
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?
652 shares @ 32.0¢·now 24.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$159.72
$-48.65
- YES
Will Ethereum dip to $1,250 by December 31, 2026?
700 shares @ 21.4¢·now 22.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$157.50
$7.50
- YES
Will Solana dip to $50 by December 31, 2026?
400 shares @ 27.0¢·now 33.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$134.00
$26.00
- YES
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026?
1000 shares @ 11.0¢·now 11.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$115.00
$5.00
- NO
Will 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?
90 shares @ 65.1¢·now 99.3¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$89.12
$30.66
- NO
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 20 million views on day 1?
63 shares @ 99.0¢·now 96.8¢·exp Aug 8, 2026$61.27
$-1.37
- NO
Will Vinicius Junior join Paris Saint-Germain?
60 shares @ 99.5¢·now 99.9¢·exp Sep 2, 2026$60.03
$0.23
- NO
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?
50 shares @ 40.0¢·now 84.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$42.25
$22.25
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 27-August 2?$281.11Aug 5, 05:37 UTC
- REDEEMWill 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?$200.52Aug 5, 03:01 UTC
- REDEEMWill 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?$207.10Aug 5, 03:01 UTC
- REDEEMWill 100 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?$500.80Aug 5, 03:01 UTC
- YIELD$0.16Aug 5, 02:34 UTC
- REDEEMNational Bank Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Marin Cilic$2.00Aug 5, 02:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYNational Bank Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Marin Cilic$1.00Aug 5, 01:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYNational Bank Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Marin Cilic$1.00Aug 5, 01:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill MrBeast's next video get less than 20 million views on day 1?$62.67Aug 5, 01:16 UTC
- REDEEMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$20.68Aug 4, 18:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 27-August 2?$110.00Aug 4, 01:18 UTC
- YIELD$0.15Aug 4, 00:10 UTC
- REWARD$1.12Aug 4, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in July?$123.04Aug 3, 01:27 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 27-August 2?$1.40Aug 3, 00:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 27-August 2?$32.71Aug 3, 00:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 27-August 2?$32.72Aug 3, 00:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 27-August 2?$32.71Aug 3, 00:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 27-August 2?$32.71Aug 3, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.15Aug 3, 00:11 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
30/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
38% win rate over 8 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
38 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 58/100.
8 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 38
- Avg trade size
- $23.64
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 1, 18:08 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 5, 05:37 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 8 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.