Flimsy-Butler
0x33e9dfb5d9bda753c83f3e6ab88197b7d2ef85b9
Wallet digest
Activity score
30/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
7
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-31.92
Realised
$-14.19
Win rate
0%
4 closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026?
1810 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 6, 2026$0.00
$-3.62
- YES
Will Jasmine Crockett receive the most votes in the first round of the Democratic Senate primary in Texas?
999 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 3, 2026$0.00
$-8.95
- YES
Will Trump nominate Michelle Bowman as the next Fed chair?
200 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Trump nominate Stephen Miran as the next Fed chair?
167 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will James Talarico win the Texas Democratic Senate Primary by between 10% and 15.00%?
161 shares @ 1.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 3, 2026$0.00
$-1.95
- NO
Will James Talarico receive the most votes in the first round of the Democratic Senate primary in Texas?
153 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 3, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2026 Texas Senate Democratic Primary and General Elections?
66 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$0.00
$-0.20
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill James Talarico win the Texas Democratic Senate Primary by between 10% and 15.00%?$1.95Mar 4, 16:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Jasmine Crockett win the 2026 Texas Senate Democratic Primary and General Elections?$1.58Mar 4, 16:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jasmine Crockett win the 2026 Texas Senate Democratic Primary and General Elections?$5.00Mar 4, 10:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill James Talarico receive the most votes in the first round of the Democratic Senate primary in Texas?$4.21Mar 4, 10:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump nominate Stephen Miran as the next Fed chair?$0.83Mar 4, 10:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Jasmine Crockett receive the most votes in the first round of the Democratic Senate primary in Texas?$0.33Mar 4, 10:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill James Talarico receive the most votes in the first round of the Democratic Senate primary in Texas?$4.22Mar 4, 10:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump nominate no one before 2027?$2.25Mar 4, 09:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?$1.97Mar 4, 09:03 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET$0.00Mar 4, 09:02 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET$0.00Mar 4, 09:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET$4.00Mar 4, 08:44 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET$0.00Mar 4, 08:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET$6.00Mar 4, 08:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026?$3.62Mar 4, 08:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?$2.00Mar 4, 08:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump nominate Michelle Bowman as the next Fed chair?$1.00Mar 4, 08:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump nominate Stephen Miran as the next Fed chair?$2.00Mar 4, 08:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump nominate no one before 2027?$3.00Mar 4, 08:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill James Talarico receive the most votes in the first round of the Democratic Senate primary in Texas?$1.00Mar 4, 03:21 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
18/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
40 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 46/100.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 40
- Avg trade size
- $4.52
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 3, 10:42 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 4, 16:59 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.