Wallet digest

active

Activity score

33/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

Open notional

$0.92

Total PnL

$-60.33

Realised

$-4.28

Win rate

47 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 48

YES
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in August?
167 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.5¢·exp Sep 1, 2026
$0.92
$-0.08
YES
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 July 13-19?
3000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026
$0.00
$-3.00
YES
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in July?
2000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2026
$0.00
$-2.00
NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on July 20?
2000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026
$0.00
$-2.00
NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on August 4?
2000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 4, 2026
$0.00
$-2.00
NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on July 26?
2000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 26, 2026
$0.00
$-2.00
NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on August 12?
2000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 12, 2026
$0.00
$-2.00
YES
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $10 in July?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00
YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on August 17?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 17, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00
NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on July 28?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 28, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00

Recent activity

TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $80,000 in August?$1.08Aug 17, 18:43 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET$2.00Aug 17, 14:16 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET$1.05Aug 17, 14:02 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET$1.04Aug 17, 13:57 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET$1.04Aug 17, 09:21 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 1AM ET$2.17Aug 17, 06:11 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 1AM ET$1.05Aug 17, 05:14 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 17, 1AM ET$1.05Aug 17, 04:48 UTC
TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on August 17?$1.08Aug 16, 14:39 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 16, 9AM ET$2.17Aug 16, 14:12 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 16, 9AM ET$1.05Aug 16, 13:00 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 16, 9AM ET$1.05Aug 16, 12:50 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 5PM ET$1.04Aug 15, 21:11 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 4PM ET$1.07Aug 15, 20:06 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 4PM ET$0.68Aug 15, 20:05 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 4PM ET$1.05Aug 15, 20:03 UTC
TRADEBUYLoL: Vitality Rising Bees vs Mental Rush (BO5) - Equal eSports Cup Playoffs$1.04Aug 15, 20:00 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 3PM ET$1.07Aug 15, 19:13 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 2PM ET$3.45Aug 15, 19:10 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 2PM ET$1.05Aug 15, 18:18 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

51/100

read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Late-entry profile

Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

0% win rate over 47 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

29/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

41 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 48/100.

Resolved-only track record

pass

47 closed markets, 0% win rate.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity69 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry21 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk48 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 41
Avg trade size: $1.12
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Aug 5, 16:48 UTC
Last active: Aug 17, 18:43 UTC
Win rate sample: 47 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 12:13:54 UTC·src:Polymarket Data