Essential-Badger
0x34004930e1e4d74dc7644e95ab26f816be8314ee
Wallet digest
Activity score
43/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
103
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-536.98
Realised
$23.61
Win rate
33%
6 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 103- NO
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase January 6-12?
3203 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 13, 2026$0.00
$-33.37
- NO
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31?
2790 shares @ 6.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-188.89
- YES
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?
1500 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-5.00
- NO
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase January 6-12?
1359 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 13, 2026$0.00
$-8.60
- NO
Will MicroStrategy announce holding 680k+ BTC by January 31?
293 shares @ 5.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 1, 2026$0.00
$-14.57
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down on August 4?
275 shares @ 2.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 4, 2025$0.00
$-8.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down on August 16?
250 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 16, 2025$0.00
$-2.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down on December 9?
215 shares @ 4.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 9, 2025$0.00
$-9.41
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026?
200 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 16, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026?
150 shares @ 2.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 6, 2026$0.00
$-3.60
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYOver $20M committed to the Hurupay public sale?$3.31Feb 4, 01:58 UTC
- TRADESELLOver $10M committed to the Hurupay public sale?$3.31Feb 4, 01:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYOver $10M committed to the Hurupay public sale?$3.87Feb 4, 01:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYOver $20M committed to the Hurupay public sale?$1.13Feb 4, 01:24 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on February 5?$1.04Feb 4, 01:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on February 5?$1.00Feb 3, 17:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on February 1?$2.87Jan 31, 17:53 UTC
- TRADESELLWill a contestant numbered 126 - 150 win Beast Games: Season 2?$0.26Jan 31, 17:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill a contestant numbered 101 - 125 win Beast Games: Season 2?$0.38Jan 31, 17:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill a contestant numbered 1 - 25 win Beast Games: Season 2?$0.25Jan 31, 17:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill a contestant numbered 26 - 50 win Beast Games: Season 2?$0.24Jan 31, 17:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill a contestant numbered 76 - 100 win Beast Games: Season 2?$0.35Jan 31, 17:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill a contestant numbered 51 - 75 win Beast Games: Season 2?$1.40Jan 31, 17:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on February 1?$3.89Jan 31, 17:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYOver $20M committed to the Hurupay public sale?$3.00Jan 31, 13:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYOver $20M committed to the Hurupay public sale?$2.90Jan 30, 15:16 UTC
- TRADESELLFlying Tulip FDV above $1.5B one day after launch?$2.80Jan 30, 15:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026?$1.05Jan 20, 16:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill "Avatar: Fire and Ash" 5th Weekend Box Office be between 13m and 14.5m?$8.88Jan 18, 23:08 UTC
- TRADESELLWill "Avatar: Fire and Ash" 5th Weekend Box Office be less than 13m?$1.50Jan 18, 23:08 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
21/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
33% win rate over 6 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 44/100.
6 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $2.36
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 17, 01:45 UTC
- Last active
- Feb 4, 01:58 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 6 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.