Automatic-Cappuccino
0x3423c5cc44b93ae9fedf8d6a25f45a0e9d15fe57
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
116
Open notional
$12.7K
Total PnL
$1.9K
Realised
$991.68
Win rate
91%
35 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 116- YES
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?
5551 shares @ 13.9¢·now 30.0¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$1.7K
$897.03
- YES
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?
5551 shares @ 27.6¢·now 23.0¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$1.3K
$-252.72
- YES
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan by September 30, 2026?
5551 shares @ 17.0¢·now 19.0¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$1.1K
$109.14
- YES
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?
1370 shares @ 62.6¢·now 68.5¢·exp Oct 28, 2026$938.11
$80.21
- YES
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?
1191 shares @ 53.9¢·now 57.5¢·exp Sep 16, 2026$684.84
$42.22
- YES
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman by September 30, 2026?
5551 shares @ 3.0¢·now 12.2¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$674.46
$508.89
- YES
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?
703 shares @ 74.3¢·now 87.5¢·exp Sep 10, 2026$614.81
$92.66
- YES
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?
5551 shares @ 19.8¢·now 11.0¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$610.62
$-488.62
- YES
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?
779 shares @ 56.9¢·now 65.5¢·exp Oct 28, 2026$510.10
$67.29
- YES
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?
1191 shares @ 36.1¢·now 41.5¢·exp Sep 16, 2026$494.28
$63.76
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026?$0.49Aug 3, 15:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026?$64.85Aug 3, 15:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026?$32.13Aug 3, 15:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026?$1.05Aug 3, 15:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026?$37.48Aug 3, 15:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026?$12.00Aug 3, 15:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026?$0.44Aug 3, 14:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026?$25.03Aug 3, 14:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026?$24.00Aug 3, 14:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Khamenei post 0-4 posts from July 31 to August 7, 2026?$8.27Aug 3, 14:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Khamenei post 0-4 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?$95.51Aug 3, 14:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Khamenei post 0-4 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?$4.75Aug 3, 14:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026?$17.77Aug 3, 14:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026?$9.16Aug 3, 14:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026?$8.38Aug 3, 14:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026?$45.90Aug 3, 14:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026?$32.41Aug 3, 14:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026?$68.10Aug 3, 14:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026?$32.94Aug 3, 13:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026?$13.25Aug 3, 13:47 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
74/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
91% win rate over 35 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
33 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 34/100.
35 closed markets, 91% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 33
- Avg trade size
- $19.71
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 3, 00:47 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 3, 15:46 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 35 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.