Wallet profile

Shimmering-Bowtie

0x344be5d62f3dc2f412395ebbd45ac89f8bf0f7fc

activity 48/100

Wallet digest

Activity score

48/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

200

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-101.3K

Realised

$14.2K

Win rate

83%

166 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 200

Recent activity

  • REFERRAL_REWARD$1.75Jul 5, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$1.18Jul 4, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$1.03Jul 3, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$1.42Jul 2, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$1.61Jul 1, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$1.85Jun 30, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$10.51Jun 29, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$8.88Jun 28, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$23.37Jun 26, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$45.33Jun 25, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$38.17Jun 24, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$23.46Jun 23, 14:57 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$27.81Jun 22, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$27.68Jun 21, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$31.78Jun 20, 00:37 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$36.50Jun 19, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$26.60Jun 18, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$30.82Jun 17, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$48.17Jun 16, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$26.39Jun 15, 00:35 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Attention signal

81/100
read-only

Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

83% win rate over 166 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

14/100
no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal
missing

No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.

Resolved-only track record
pass

166 closed markets, 83% win rate.

Cost / slippage
missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk
missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity
missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation
missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution
missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity0 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry43 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk20 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time)
0
Avg trade size
$0.00
Top category
—
Category concentration
0%
First seen
May 16, 00:35 UTC
Last active
Jul 5, 00:35 UTC
Win rate sample
166 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

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updated 18:17:36 UTC·src:Polymarket Data