Thirsty-Sphere
0x34553ca6099469f0d88dcb04c821b69d52977a47
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
9
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-10.06
Realised
$0.08
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Will more than 23 named storms occur in the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 1, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Captain America: Brave New World be the top grossing movie of 2025?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?
2 shares @ 88.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will Luís Marques Mendes win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?
1 shares @ 80.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 25, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?
1 shares @ 85.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$0.00
$-1.05
- YES
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?
1 shares @ 81.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Kingdom Come: Deliverance II win Outstanding Story-Rich Game in the 2025 Steam Awards?
1 shares @ 84.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 3, 2026$0.00
$-1.02
- YES
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?
1 shares @ 88.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in Play Store on December 19?
1 shares @ 98.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 19, 2025$0.00
$-1.06
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 10?$1.04Jun 9, 06:02 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Democratic Party of Korea (DP) win the 2026 South Korean local elections?$1.10Jun 9, 06:02 UTC
- REDEEMWill NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?$1.15Jun 9, 06:02 UTC
- REDEEMWill Park Chan-dae win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election?$1.20Jun 9, 06:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 10?$1.00Mar 10, 08:20 UTC
- REDEEMWill Lilo and Stitch be the second highest grossing movie of 2025?$1.05Mar 10, 08:20 UTC
- REDEEMWill Rob Jetten become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands?$1.06Mar 10, 08:20 UTC
- REDEEMWill Laura Virginia Fernández Delgado win the 2026 Costa Rican presidential election?$1.10Mar 10, 08:20 UTC
- REDEEMWill PPSO win the most seats in the 2026 Costa Rican Legislative Assembly election?$1.12Mar 10, 08:20 UTC
- REDEEMWill Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026?$1.15Mar 10, 08:20 UTC
- REDEEMWill Google have the third-best AI model at the end of January 2026?$1.16Mar 10, 08:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Sanae Takaichi be the next leader out before 2027?$0.69Jan 3, 15:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Sanae Takaichi be the next leader out before 2027?$0.31Jan 3, 15:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Sanae Takaichi be the next leader out before 2027?$1.00Jan 3, 11:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?$1.07Jan 3, 11:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?$1.00Jan 3, 11:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?$1.00Jan 3, 11:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?$1.00Jan 3, 11:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Google have the third-best AI model at the end of January 2026?$1.00Jan 3, 11:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?$1.00Jan 3, 11:39 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 1 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
33 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 42/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 33
- Avg trade size
- $1.04
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Dec 28, 12:35 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 9, 06:02 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.